Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
The Recap
Week 3, 2026 — the week in review
Week 3 · 75 games · 23 one-score finishes · 11 upsets · 6 weather-affected
What was rare
This week’s games that stand out in nine seasons of college football — every dimension where a game ranked among the rarest we track. Full context lives on the How Rare page.
Market facts are being regenerated and will return shortly.
#20Oklahoma beat New Mexico despite losing the turnover battle by 3 -- tied for the worst turnover margin overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.#20Louisville-SMU changed leads 7 times -- the most lead changes in a game of the 2026 season.#22Miami (OH) led Cincinnati by 21 and lost 35-31 -- the largest blown lead of the 2026 season.#22Cincinnati came back from 21 down to beat Miami (OH) 35-31 -- the largest comeback of the 2026 season.#65Toledo and Temple combined for 36 fourth-quarter points -- the most combined fourth-quarter points of the 2026 season.#7048 explosive plays between UCLA and Purdue -- tied for the most explosive plays in a game of the 2026 season.#105Toledo 49, Temple 48: 97 combined points -- the highest-scoring game of the 2026 season.#11548 explosive plays between Texas State and North Texas -- tied for the most explosive plays in a game of the 2026 season.#118BYU averaged +0.58 EPA per play against Colorado State -- the best single-game offensive EPA of the 2026 season.•Oregon beat Portland State by 84, 84-0 -- tied for the largest margin of victory since 2017.•Southeastern Louisiana beat Louisiana-Monroe despite being outgained by 232 yards -- the largest yardage deficit overcome by a winner of the 2026 season.
Best single-game performances — offense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play.
Iowa
vs Northern Iowa
+0.711
EPA/play
Iowa averaged +0.711 EPA per play against Northern Iowa on a 82.6% success rate.
Share →BYU
at Colorado State
+0.576
EPA/play
BYU averaged +0.576 EPA per play against Colorado State on a 62.5% success rate.
Share →Oregon
vs Portland State
+0.552
EPA/play
Oregon averaged +0.552 EPA per play against Portland State on a 68.0% success rate.
Share →Best single-game performances — defense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play. Defensive EPA is credited to the defense — higher is better.
California
vs Wagner
+0.887
EPA/play
California's defense produced +0.887 EPA per play against Wagner (100.0% success rate).
Share →Sam Houston
vs Nicholls State
+0.548
EPA/play
Sam Houston's defense produced +0.548 EPA per play against Nicholls State (75.0% success rate).
Share →Texas
vs UTSA
+0.518
EPA/play
Texas's defense produced +0.518 EPA per play against UTSA (69.0% success rate).
Share →Every game, and what it looked like before
Final scores for the week, each with the two past games whose team profiles most resembled this matchup — the same engine that powers The Archive. Descriptive resemblance, nothing more.
Closest comps: 2025 East Carolina 23-17 Pittsburgh · 2020 Oklahoma 41-13 Oklahoma State
Closest comps: 2021 Nebraska 17-26 Ohio State · 2020 Georgia 28-44 Florida
Closest comps: 2017 Arizona State 13-7 Washington · 2017 Colorado 10-37 Washington
Closest comps: 2017 Northwestern 24-23 Kentucky · 2017 Mississippi State 45-7 Kentucky
Closest comps: 2023 UConn 21-24 South Florida · 2024 Virginia 13-27 Maryland
Closest comps: 2017 Toledo 20-15 Eastern Michigan · 2023 Coastal Carolina 34-6 Marshall
Closest comps: 2019 Florida State 35-24 Louisville · 2019 UNLV 17-43 Arkansas State
Closest comps: 2017 Florida 22-38 Florida State · 2018 Akron 17-10 Central Michigan
Closest comps: 2025 UCF 34-9 North Carolina · 2022 Auburn 13-10 Texas A&M
Closest comps: 2018 Texas 31-16 TCU · 2023 Coastal Carolina 34-6 Marshall
Closest comps: 2026 Nebraska 49-21 Ohio · 2025 Notre Dame 49-10 Navy
Closest comps: 2020 Memphis 50-49 UCF · 2020 Georgia Tech 21-49 UCF
Closest comps: 2021 Charlotte 9-38 Florida Atlantic · 2017 Buffalo 68-71 Western Michigan
Closest comps: 2019 Auburn 24-6 Tulane · 2023 NC State 20-6 Miami
Closest comps: 2025 Boston College 10-25 Notre Dame · 2022 Northwestern 7-21 Ohio State
Closest comps: 2018 Florida State 22-21 Boston College · 2018 Florida State 37-19 Northern Illinois
Closest comps: 2020 Troy 17-20 Middle Tennessee · 2020 Tulsa 34-30 East Carolina
Closest comps: 2017 Texas State 13-20 App State · 2024 Tulsa 46-45 UTSA
Closest comps: 2024 Baylor 31-3 Air Force · 2025 Utah 53-7 Colorado
Closest comps: 2019 Northern Illinois 20-27 Ball State · 2021 Boston College 41-34 Missouri
Closest comps: 2022 Eastern Michigan 24-27 Toledo · 2020 Missouri 14-49 Georgia
Closest comps: 2026 Troy 24-21 Sam Houston · 2022 Miami 30-7 Southern Miss
Closest comps: 2024 Georgia State 27-48 Coastal Carolina · 2021 Rice 35-31 Louisiana Tech
Closest comps: 2018 Florida International 63-24 Massachusetts · 2025 North Texas 52-25 Temple
Closest comps: 2024 Penn State 27-11 UCLA · 2023 Notre Dame 45-7 Wake Forest
Closest comps: 2021 Buffalo 17-24 Western Michigan · 2023 Cincinnati 6-20 Oklahoma
Closest comps: 2019 Northwestern 0-20 Iowa · 2022 Texas State 13-41 Louisiana
Closest comps: 2018 North Texas 41-17 Rice · 2025 Arizona 41-13 Oklahoma State
Closest comps: 2019 Middle Tennessee 24-13 Marshall · 2023 Wyoming 35-33 Texas Tech
Closest comps: 2017 Miami (OH) 17-21 Cincinnati · 2022 Troy 34-16 UL Monroe
Closest comps: 2019 Michigan State 7-28 Penn State · 2024 Oklahoma 15-25 Tennessee
Closest comps: 2017 Temple 13-20 Houston · 2017 Florida State 28-31 Louisville
Closest comps: 2026 Sacramento State 6-35 Massachusetts · 2022 Boston College 23-32 Syracuse
Closest comps: 2020 Ole Miss 35-51 Florida · 2024 Washington State 35-52 Syracuse
Closest comps: 2022 Wake Forest 43-15 Boston College · 2022 Notre Dame 44-0 Boston College
Closest comps: 2025 Texas 38-7 San José State · 2022 Missouri 17-14 Vanderbilt
Closest comps: 2022 Florida 31-28 South Florida · 2017 Tulane 62-28 Tulsa
Closest comps: 2019 Oregon 37-35 Washington State · 2022 App State 61-63 North Carolina
Closest comps: 2025 Mississippi State 34-41 Tennessee · 2021 Louisiana Tech 42-32 Charlotte
Closest comps: 2025 NC State 21-11 Florida State · 2017 SMU 44-21 Arkansas State
Closest comps: 2024 UNLV 41-20 San Diego State · 2019 UCF 45-27 Stanford
Closest comps: 2022 Memphis 44-34 North Texas · 2018 Oregon 42-21 UCLA
Closest comps: 2021 Oklahoma State 55-3 Kansas · 2026 Oklahoma 51-0 UTEP
Closest comps: 2020 Georgia 27-6 Auburn · 2018 Iowa 31-28 Nebraska
Closest comps: 2017 Western Michigan 48-20 Kent State · 2017 Minnesota 24-17 Illinois
Closest comps: 2020 Miami 31-19 Pittsburgh · 2020 Miami 34-37 Oklahoma State
Closest comps: 2021 App State 27-3 Georgia Southern · 2022 Alabama 55-3 Vanderbilt
Closest comps: 2018 Notre Dame 42-13 Florida State · 2023 SMU 34-16 Charlotte
Closest comps: 2020 Tulane 34-37 SMU · 2024 East Carolina 30-20 UTSA
Closest comps: 2018 Oregon 31-29 Arizona State · 2018 Fresno State 31-20 Arizona State
Closest comps: 2021 BYU 27-17 Arizona State · 2019 Georgia State 27-56 App State
Closest comps: 2021 Coastal Carolina 59-6 UL Monroe · 2021 Louisiana 21-16 UL Monroe
Closest comps: 2022 Hawai'i 10-63 Vanderbilt · 2021 South Florida 34-14 Temple
Closest comps: 2020 Syracuse 37-20 Georgia Tech · 2017 Illinois 6-28 Nebraska
Closest comps: 2024 Miami (OH) 46-7 Central Michigan · 2021 Penn State 24-0 Indiana
Closest comps: 2020 Wisconsin 45-7 Illinois · 2017 Troy 38-16 Georgia Southern
Closest comps: 2022 Boston College 23-32 Syracuse · 2019 Marshall 30-27 Florida International
Against the pre-game line
How the week's results landed relative to the pre-game consensus spread and total. Descriptive only — every FBS game since 2017 is available on the Betting page.
35 of 7347.9%
favorites covered
1
pushes
43 of 7358.9%
overs
9.70points
avg. miss vs. the number
Furthest above the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | Nicholls | -21.0 | +59.0 | +38.0 |
| Northwestern | Colorado | -3.5 | +34.0 | +30.5 |
| Oregon | Portland State | -57.5 | +84.0 | +26.5 |
| Iowa State | Bowling Green | -23.5 | +48.0 | +24.5 |
| UConn | Southern Miss | -3.5 | +28.0 | +24.5 |
Furthest below the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | Maine | -38.0 | +6.0 | -32.0 |
| Texas A&M | Kentucky | -16.5 | -10.0 | -26.5 |
| Virginia | West Virginia | -8.5 | -11.0 | -19.5 |
| Missouri | Troy | -27.0 | +10.0 | -17.0 |
| California | Wagner | -58.3 | +42.0 | -16.2 |