Fourth Down Data
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South Alabama

JaguarsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference1-0#95 (-3.65)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall
Offense
35· DRating
28· DPer play
41· CConsistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
59· CPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.060
Defensive EPA/play
-0.169
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
50.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.109
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.23
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where South Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
12th
Opp-adjusted defense
33th
Offensive EPA/play
28th
Defensive EPA/play
59th
Offensive success rate
48th
Explosiveness
54th
Defensive havoc
77th
Points per drive
64th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2019OA -0.003 / -0.009similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, pass defense3092Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3093Western Michigan2017OA -0.044 / -0.053similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense3084Texas2025OA -0.022 / +0.134similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate2915Duke2022OA +0.068 / -0.022similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate291

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeastern Louisiana39-14W-13.5W52.5O
2@ Tulane------
3vs Ohio------
4@ Kentucky------
5vs UL Monroe------
6@ Arkansas State------
8@ Marshall------
9vs Louisiana Tech------
10@ Louisiana------
11vs Troy------
12@ Southern Miss------
13vs App State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off10thRed Zone Off33th3rd Down Off80thPass Def26thRush Def88thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def99th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05030th-0.20368th
Red Zone-0.13733th+1.4452th
Third Down+0.62880th-1.47299th
No Garbage Time-0.06028th-0.16959th
First Half-0.17820th-0.18460th
Second Half+0.11261th-0.23571th
Early Downs-0.25310th+0.02032th
Passing Downs+0.38877th+0.22526th
Standard Downs-0.27210th-0.40088th
Goal to Go-0.16227th+2.0603th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 31.4%Rush 68.6%
Havoc/Game
10.0
Havoc Rate
26.3%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
395.0
Pts/Drive
3.70
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
10.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — South Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth AlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points3914
Points / Game39.014.0
First Downs
Total2711
Rushing153
Passing97
Penalty31
Rushing
Attempts5917
Yards24145
Yards / Carry4.12.6
Yards / Game241.045.0
Touchdowns30
Passing
Attempts2720
Completions1812
Completion %66.7%60.0%
Yards154186
Yards / Attempt5.79.3
Touchdowns12
Interceptions02
Passer Rating126.80151.12
Total Offense
Plays8637
Yards395231
Yards / Play4.66.2
Yards / Game395.0231.0
Punt Returns
Returns01
Yards0-1
Average—-1.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns36
Yards9193
Average30.315.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts13
Yards50115
Average50.038.3
Interception Returns
Returns20
Yards120
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles22
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties58
Yards4772
Yards / Game47.072.0
Time of Possession
Per Game40:0919:51
Third Downs
Attempts167
Conversions70
Conversion %43.8%0.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts41
Conversions20
Conversion %50.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips62
Scores (TD + FG)62
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns32
TD %50.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts31
Made30
Pct100.0%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts42
Made42
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →