The value a single play adds relative to the expected scoring outcome of a given situation. A play that moves the offense from a 2.0 expected-point situation to a 3.5 expected-point situation has an EPA of +1.5. Positive EPA means the play helped the offense; negative means it helped the defense.

The average number of points a team is expected to score from a given down, distance, and field position, based on historical play-by-play outcomes. For example, a 1st-and-10 at the opponent's 20-yard line might have an EP of ~4.2 because teams in that situation historically score touchdowns more often than not.

A team's average EPA across all plays. The single best measure of per-play efficiency. Higher is better for offense; lower (more negative) is better for defense.

The percentage of plays with a positive EPA. A "successful" play is any play that increases the offense's expected points. Roughly analogous to "moving the chains" — consistently positive plays win games.

Whether a team covered the point spread set by oddsmakers. If a team is -7 (favored by 7) and wins by 10, they covered ATS. If they win by 3, they did not cover. ATS records measure betting performance, not just wins and losses.

The expected margin of victory set by oddsmakers. A spread of -6.5 means the favored team is expected to win by about 7 points.

A team's blended power rating that combines raw EPA differential (10%), pass/rush-weighted EPA (20%), opponent-adjusted EPA (30%), and recency-weighted EPA (40%). Higher composite ratings indicate stronger overall teams.

EPA metrics adjusted for strength of schedule. A team posting strong offensive numbers against elite defenses gets more credit than one dominating weak opponents. Computed iteratively over 8 passes to stabilize ratings.

An exponential decay applied to weekly performance so that recent games count more than early-season games. Each additional week back is weighted at 88% of the next — meaning the most recent week counts roughly twice as much as a game from 6 weeks ago.

A built-in adjustment for playing at home, ranging from 2.5 to 4.0 points. Larger stadiums (above 40,000 capacity) receive a scaled bonus up to 1.5 additional points, reflecting the impact of crowd noise and atmosphere. Neutral-site games receive no adjustment.

Our model weights passing EPA at 65% and rushing EPA at 35% when building team ratings, reflecting the outsized impact passing efficiency has on game outcomes in modern college football.

Total yards gained divided by total plays. A simple efficiency metric that measures how many yards a team gains on an average snap. Less sophisticated than EPA but useful as a quick reference.

The number of yards between the line of scrimmage and the opponent's end zone. A key input to the Expected Points model — a 1st-and-10 at the 20 is worth far more than a 1st-and-10 at the 80.

The current down (1st through 4th) and yards needed for a first down. The primary situational context for every play. 3rd-and-long is a very different situation than 1st-and-10, and the EP model captures this.

The top level of NCAA Division I college football, comprising roughly 133 teams across conferences like the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC. Our platform focuses on FBS teams and filters out FCS (lower-division) matchups.

A change of possession via interception or fumble. Turnovers are the most impactful plays in football, typically worth -4 to -5 EPA because they hand the opponent the ball in scoring position.

Any play that directly results in points: touchdowns (7 EP), field goals (3 EP), safeties (-2 EP for the offense). These plays set the EP_after value directly rather than requiring a model lookup.

The total combined points oddsmakers expect both teams to score. Bettors wager on whether the actual total will be over or under this number. Also called the "total."

When a team beats the point spread. If a team is +3.5 (an underdog) and loses by only 2, they "covered" the spread. Covering is the fundamental metric of spread betting success.

A straight-up bet on which team will win, with no point spread involved. Odds are expressed as positive (underdog, e.g. +150 means $100 bet returns $150 profit) or negative (favorite, e.g. -200 means you must bet $200 to win $100).

A spread of exactly 0 — neither team is favored. The game is considered a toss-up by oddsmakers.