Fourth Down Data
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USM

Southern Miss

Golden EaglesRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference1-0#58 (+2.54)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

58· COverall
Offense
64· CRating
79· BPer play
85· BConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
56· CRating
79· BPer play
93· AConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.260
Defensive EPA/play
-0.313
lower = better
Off Success Rate
60.7%
Def Success Rate
24.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.573
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Southern Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
61th
Offensive EPA/play
80th
Defensive EPA/play
80th
Offensive success rate
92th
Explosiveness
91th
Defensive havoc
67th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Old Dominion2025OA +0.042 / +0.162similar: run defense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3242Mississippi State2017OA +0.003 / +0.186similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, run defense3193Louisiana2026OA +0.023 / -0.011similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3154Buffalo2018OA +0.077 / -0.060similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3155South Florida2025OA +0.113 / +0.103similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA309

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Alcorn State49-3W-19.5W50.5O
2@ Auburn------
3vs UConn------
4@ Tulane------
6@ Troy------
7vs Arkansas State------
8vs Louisiana------
9@ UL Monroe------
10vs James Madison------
11@ Louisiana Tech------
12vs South Alabama------
13@ Old Dominion------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off94thRush Off64thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off12thPass Def67thRush Def91thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def45th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.22082th-0.31388th
Red Zone+0.18761th-1.19697th
Third Down-0.57412th-0.04245th
No Garbage Time+0.27786th-0.37286th
First Half+0.23574th-0.31379th
Second Half+0.20173th-0.31383th
Early Downs+0.19078th-0.41490th
Passing Downs+0.63494th-0.20267th
Standard Downs+0.10064th-0.43291th
Goal to Go+0.34051th-0.63390th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 32.1%Rush 67.9%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
24.1%
TO Margin
+4.0
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
543.0
Pts/Drive
4.67
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Southern Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouthern MissOpponents
Scoring
Points493
Points / Game49.03.0
First Downs
Total3211
Rushing184
Passing106
Penalty41
Rushing
Attempts5735
Yards317104
Yards / Carry5.63.0
Yards / Game317.0104.0
Touchdowns60
Passing
Attempts2723
Completions1515
Completion %55.6%65.2%
Yards226119
Yards / Attempt8.45.2
Touchdowns10
Interceptions14
Passer Rating130.6873.90
Total Offense
Plays8458
Yards543223
Yards / Play6.53.8
Yards / Game543.0223.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards220
Average11.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns14
Yards2777
Average27.019.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts35
Yards109205
Average36.341.0
Interception Returns
Returns41
Yards332
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties47
Yards2569
Yards / Game25.069.0
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2128:39
Third Downs
Attempts1214
Conversions55
Conversion %41.7%35.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts20
Conversions20
Conversion %100.0%—
Red Zone
Trips62
Scores (TD + FG)51
Score %83.3%50.0%
Touchdowns50
TD %83.3%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts11
Made01
Pct0.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts70
Made70
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →