Fourth Down Data
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FSU

Florida State

SeminolesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-6#88 (-2.73)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

32· DOverall
Offense
34· DRating
21· DPer play
72· BConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
9· FPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.066
Defensive EPA/play
+0.157
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
49.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
30.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.224
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.05

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.26
own return game
Return Defense
+0.67
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#80
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
21th
Defensive EPA/play
10th
Offensive success rate
60th
Explosiveness
30th
Defensive havoc
16th
Points per drive
40th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wyoming2026OA -0.017 / -0.034similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, passing offense3542New Mexico2019OA -0.156 / -0.122similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3523South Florida2021OA -0.052 / -0.142similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, run defense3464Louisiana2025OA -0.058 / -0.067similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate3325Massachusetts2021OA -0.161 / -0.213similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense331

2020 Schedule & Results

9 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Georgia Tech13-16L-12.5L54.5U
4@ Miami10-52L+11.0L53.5O
5vs Jacksonville State41-24W----
6@ Notre Dame26-42L+20.5W52O
7vs North Carolina31-28W+13.5W64U
8@ Louisville16-48L+4.8L61O
10vs Pittsburgh17-41L-2.0L50.5O
11@ NC State22-38L+7.0L60P
15vs Duke56-35W-3.5W57O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-5
37.5%
O/U Record
5-2-1
71.4%
Straight Up
3-6
33.3%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off44thRed Zone Off38th3rd Down Off36thPass Def2thRush Def27thRed Zone Def39th3rd Down Def13th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04429th+0.1488th
Red Zone-0.05838th+0.04039th
Third Down-0.00336th+0.32513th
No Garbage Time-0.06822th+0.1578th
First Half-0.04031th+0.2115th
Second Half-0.04830th+0.07035th
Early Downs-0.07622th+0.1109th
Passing Downs-0.10519th+0.3302th
Standard Downs-0.00844th+0.06627th
Goal to Go-0.4249th+0.16531th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.3%Rush 54.7%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
14.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
396.7
Pts/Drive
2.05
3rd Down%
35.6%
3&Out%
26.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 9 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida StateOpponents
Scoring
Points232324
Points / Game25.836.0
First Downs
Total185215
Rushing9991
Passing7196
Penalty1528
Rushing
Attempts352350
Yards1,7991,793
Yards / Carry5.15.1
Yards / Game199.9199.2
Touchdowns1925
Passing
Attempts292285
Completions159189
Completion %54.5%66.3%
Yards1,7712,314
Yards / Attempt6.18.1
Touchdowns1016
Interceptions138
Passer Rating107.80147.43
Total Offense
Plays644635
Yards3,5704,107
Yards / Play5.56.5
Yards / Game396.7456.3
Punt Returns
Returns814
Yards6667
Average8.34.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2923
Yards604495
Average20.821.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3830
Yards1,6581,224
Average43.640.8
Interception Returns
Returns813
Yards124141
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1111
Lost46
Penalties
Penalties8069
Yards700607
Yards / Game77.867.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3329:24
Third Downs
Attempts132114
Conversions4753
Conversion %35.6%46.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2813
Conversions156
Conversion %53.6%46.2%
Red Zone
Trips3142
Scores (TD + FG)2335
Score %74.2%83.3%
Touchdowns1928
TD %61.3%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1414
Made88
Pct57.1%57.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2741
Made2640
Pct96.3%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →