Fourth Down Data
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UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference6-7#105 (-9.72)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

23· DOverall
Offense
28· DRating
46· CPer play
32· DConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
19· DRating
33· DPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.067
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.008
Defensive EPA/play
+0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.031
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.041
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#105
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#88
market 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
31th
Opp-adjusted defense
22th
Offensive EPA/play
47th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
33th
Defensive havoc
11th
Points per drive
42th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UL Monroe2024OA -0.006 / -0.009similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3702Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3623Boston College2021OA -0.024 / +0.004similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3604Vanderbilt2021OA -0.106 / -0.066similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, turnover rate3505South Florida2021OA -0.052 / -0.142similar: pass defense, passing offense, rushing offense347

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Rice12-14L-10.0L48.5U
2vs McNeese State34-10W-19.5W49.75U
3@ Missouri10-52L+27.0L47.5O
4@ Eastern Michigan31-34L-2.5L59O
5vs Marshall54-51W+2.3W48O
7@ James Madison14-24L+18.5W45.5U
8vs Southern Miss10-22L+3.5L45.5U
9@ Troy23-35L+7.0L47O
10@ South Alabama31-22W-13.0L58U
11vs Texas State42-39W+3.5W63O
13@ Arkansas State34-30W----
14vs UL Monroe30-27W-7.5L51.5O
17@ Delaware13-20L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off47thRed Zone Off21th3rd Down Off74thPass Def23thRush Def45thRed Zone Def68th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00447th+0.02933th
Red Zone-0.13221th-0.09468th
Third Down+0.21074th+0.17121th
No Garbage Time+0.00251th+0.01934th
First Half+0.03964th+0.03731th
Second Half-0.05330th+0.02139th
Early Downs-0.04432th+0.02826th
Passing Downs-0.00953th+0.08423th
Standard Downs-0.00247th+0.00645th
Goal to Go-0.04049th-0.20878th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.0%Rush 60.0%
Havoc/Game
10.2
Havoc Rate
14.5%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
345.2
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
40.6%
3&Out%
23.6%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points338380
Points / Game26.029.2
First Downs
Total247278
Rushing112143
Passing94121
Penalty4114
Rushing
Attempts515516
Yards2,3822,427
Yards / Carry4.64.7
Yards / Game183.2186.7
Touchdowns2625
Passing
Attempts343379
Completions187252
Completion %54.5%66.5%
Yards2,1052,913
Yards / Attempt6.17.7
Touchdowns1218
Interceptions149
Passer Rating109.45141.98
Total Offense
Plays858895
Yards4,4875,340
Yards / Play5.26.0
Yards / Game345.2410.8
Punt Returns
Returns1221
Yards29139
Average2.46.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3241
Yards684799
Average21.419.5
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5444
Yards2,2381,795
Average41.440.8
Interception Returns
Returns914
Yards91180
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1216
Lost59
Penalties
Penalties7785
Yards605846
Yards / Game46.565.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1330:19
Third Downs
Attempts192173
Conversions7874
Conversion %40.6%42.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2023
Conversions1112
Conversion %55.0%52.2%
Red Zone
Trips4445
Scores (TD + FG)3736
Score %84.1%80.0%
Touchdowns2326
TD %52.3%57.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2825
Made2017
Pct71.4%68.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3844
Made3843
Pct100.0%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →