Fourth Down Data
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BC

Boston College

EaglesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference6-6#78 (-0.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

42· COverall
Offense
41· CRating
42· CPer play
33· DConsistency
64· CBig plays
Defense
63· CRating
45· CPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.015
Defensive EPA/play
-0.013
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.5%
Def Success Rate
45.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.003
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.59
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.63
own return game
Return Defense
-0.55
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#78
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#47
market 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 32 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boston College ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
40th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
45th
Offensive success rate
35th
Explosiveness
65th
Defensive havoc
29th
Points per drive
48th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Tulsa2018OA -0.122 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3912Miami (OH)2017OA -0.001 / -0.011similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3833Louisiana2025OA -0.058 / -0.067similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3604Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3585Syracuse2023OA -0.019 / +0.045similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate355

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Colgate51-0W-46.5W--
2@ Massachusetts45-28W-37.5L59.5O
3@ Temple28-3W-14.5W57U
4vs Missouri41-34W+1.0W58O
5@ Clemson13-19L+14.5W46U
7vs NC State7-33L+3.0L53U
8@ Louisville14-28L+6.5L57U
9@ Syracuse6-21L+6.5L50U
10vs Virginia Tech17-3W----
11@ Georgia Tech41-30W+2.0W53.5O
12vs Florida State23-26L-2.0L54.5U
13vs Wake Forest10-41L+4.5L64U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off69thRush Off28thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off39thPass Def50thRush Def68thRed Zone Def86th3rd Down Def83th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01642th-0.03860th
Red Zone-0.04448th-0.20686th
Third Down+0.04139th-0.12883th
No Garbage Time-0.01741th-0.00845th
First Half+0.03458th-0.05967th
Second Half-0.06525th-0.01653th
Early Downs-0.03038th-0.05565th
Passing Downs+0.05769th-0.00850th
Standard Downs-0.05428th-0.05468th
Goal to Go+0.07770th-0.38087th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.8%Rush 61.2%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
349.0
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
39.6%
3&Out%
27.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Boston College vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoston CollegeOpponents
Scoring
Points296266
Points / Game24.722.2
First Downs
Total231223
Rushing121106
Passing8794
Penalty2323
Rushing
Attempts479451
Yards1,9712,043
Yards / Carry4.14.5
Yards / Game164.3170.3
Touchdowns2115
Passing
Attempts304309
Completions169179
Completion %55.6%57.9%
Yards2,2172,082
Yards / Attempt7.36.7
Touchdowns1314
Interceptions1110
Passer Rating123.73123.01
Total Offense
Plays783760
Yards4,1884,125
Yards / Play5.35.4
Yards / Game349.0343.8
Punt Returns
Returns1518
Yards70212
Average4.711.8
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2329
Yards596589
Average25.920.3
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5356
Yards2,3442,354
Average44.242.0
Interception Returns
Returns1011
Yards2713
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1511
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties6584
Yards596732
Yards / Game49.761.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4229:22
Third Downs
Attempts159147
Conversions6351
Conversion %39.6%34.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2222
Conversions1211
Conversion %54.5%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4439
Scores (TD + FG)3730
Score %84.1%76.9%
Touchdowns2622
TD %59.1%56.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1414
Made1313
Pct92.9%92.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3632
Made3531
Pct97.2%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →