Fourth Down Data
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SYR

Syracuse

OrangeRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#97 (-3.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

29· DOverall
Offense
28· DRating
36· DPer play
59· CConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
34· DRating
62· CPer play
13· FConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.019
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.024
Defensive EPA/play
-0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.001
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.00
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.58
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#97
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#52
market 45 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 21 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
40th
Opp-adjusted defense
69th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
62th
Offensive success rate
51th
Explosiveness
56th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
37th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Florida2019OA -0.055 / +0.051similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate4112Boston College2021OA -0.024 / +0.004similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3553Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3524Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3495Florida Atlantic2021OA -0.078 / +0.062similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA339

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Colgate65-0W-40.0W49.5O
2vs Western Michigan48-7W-24.5W56.5U
3@ Purdue35-20W-2.5W57.5U
4vs Army29-16W-13.0P49.5U
5vs Clemson14-31L+6.5L53U
6@ North Carolina7-40L+8.5L59.5U
7@ Florida State3-41L+17.5L56.5U
9@ Virginia Tech10-38L-2.5L51U
10vs Boston College10-17L----
11vs Pittsburgh28-13W+3.0W37.5O
12@ Georgia Tech22-31L+6.5L53P
13vs Wake Forest35-31W-3.0W44O
17vs South Florida0-45L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7-1
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8-1
33.3%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off22thRed Zone Off34th3rd Down Off57thPass Def96thRush Def41thRed Zone Def90th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04029th-0.05378th
Red Zone-0.07234th-0.21290th
Third Down+0.22357th+0.14556th
No Garbage Time-0.01339th-0.03969th
First Half-0.08418th+0.01050th
Second Half+0.00549th-0.12490th
Early Downs-0.10520th-0.02543th
Passing Downs+0.02439th-0.16896th
Standard Downs-0.07522th+0.00741th
Goal to Go-0.06034th-0.33490th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.4%Rush 62.6%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
343.3
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
23.6%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSyracuseOpponents
Scoring
Points306330
Points / Game23.525.4
First Downs
Total233278
Rushing115122
Passing94126
Penalty2430
Rushing
Attempts529500
Yards2,2401,926
Yards / Carry4.23.9
Yards / Game172.3148.2
Touchdowns2016
Passing
Attempts316425
Completions192269
Completion %60.8%63.3%
Yards2,2233,021
Yards / Attempt7.07.1
Touchdowns1721
Interceptions159
Passer Rating128.11135.07
Total Offense
Plays845925
Yards4,4634,947
Yards / Play5.35.3
Yards / Game343.3380.5
Punt Returns
Returns2620
Yards258284
Average9.914.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns204
Yards35975
Average17.918.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6359
Yards2,8202,472
Average44.841.9
Interception Returns
Returns915
Yards215104
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles2425
Lost913
Penalties
Penalties9571
Yards801696
Yards / Game61.653.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1831:42
Third Downs
Attempts176197
Conversions6980
Conversion %39.2%40.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2030
Conversions1014
Conversion %50.0%46.7%
Red Zone
Trips4150
Scores (TD + FG)3238
Score %78.0%76.0%
Touchdowns2423
TD %58.5%46.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1621
Made1019
Pct62.5%90.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3836
Made3635
Pct94.7%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →