Fourth Down Data
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Florida Atlantic

OwlsBalanced
American Conference5-7#98 (-3.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

27· DOverall
Offense
15· DRating
36· DPer play
36· DConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
72· BPer play
64· CConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.062
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.035
Defensive EPA/play
-0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
44.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.024
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.163
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.63
own return game
Return Defense
-0.34
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#98
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#70
market 28 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida Atlantic ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
21th
Opp-adjusted defense
74th
Offensive EPA/play
37th
Defensive EPA/play
73th
Offensive success rate
38th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
42th
Points per drive
26th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boston College2018OA -0.066 / +0.074similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3622Eastern Michigan2018OA -0.073 / +0.100similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate3563Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3554South Alabama2021OA -0.078 / +0.022similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3485Syracuse2023OA -0.019 / +0.045similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive EPA340

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Florida14-35L+23.5W52U
2vs Georgia Southern38-6W-6.5W47.5U
3vs Fordham45-14W----
4@ Air Force7-31L+3.5L54U
5vs Florida International58-21W-10.5W51.5O
6@ UAB14-31L+4.0L49U
8@ Charlotte38-9W----
9vs UTEP28-25W-11.0L47.5O
10vs Marshall13-28L+1.5L58U
11@ Old Dominion16-30L-7.0L48U
12@ Western Kentucky17-52L+10.0L64.5O
13vs Middle Tennessee17-27L-3.5L49.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off54thRush Off41thRed Zone Off34th3rd Down Off96thPass Def88thRush Def51thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00646th-0.08083th
Red Zone-0.10534th-0.33895th
Third Down+0.42096th-0.27698th
No Garbage Time-0.02238th-0.06875th
First Half-0.00845th+0.00347th
Second Half-0.00445th-0.17295th
Early Downs-0.08024th-0.00742th
Passing Downs+0.01454th-0.19288th
Standard Downs-0.01741th-0.01551th
Goal to Go-0.17528th-0.47791th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.2%Rush 53.8%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
18.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
399.7
Pts/Drive
1.85
3rd Down%
43.2%
3&Out%
22.8%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Florida Atlantic vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida AtlanticOpponents
Scoring
Points305309
Points / Game25.425.8
First Downs
Total240240
Rushing10191
Passing116128
Penalty2321
Rushing
Attempts449422
Yards1,8211,886
Yards / Carry4.14.5
Yards / Game151.8157.2
Touchdowns1817
Passing
Attempts386420
Completions230247
Completion %59.6%58.8%
Yards2,9752,970
Yards / Attempt7.77.1
Touchdowns2019
Interceptions813
Passer Rating137.28126.95
Total Offense
Plays835842
Yards4,7964,856
Yards / Play5.75.8
Yards / Game399.7404.7
Punt Returns
Returns1917
Yards129168
Average6.89.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2929
Yards611643
Average21.122.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6164
Yards2,7852,734
Average45.742.7
Interception Returns
Returns138
Yards169134
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles2114
Lost116
Penalties
Penalties8591
Yards717815
Yards / Game59.867.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3531:10
Third Downs
Attempts176174
Conversions7656
Conversion %43.2%32.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2426
Conversions1015
Conversion %41.7%57.7%
Red Zone
Trips4049
Scores (TD + FG)3135
Score %77.5%71.4%
Touchdowns2226
TD %55.0%53.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1216
Made910
Pct75.0%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3937
Made3835
Pct97.4%94.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →