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BC
Boston College
EaglesRun-HeavyAtlantic Coast Conference7-5#56 (+2.11)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
58· COverall
Offense
32· DRating
27· DPer play
17· DConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
74· BPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.066
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.074
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.048
Defensive EPA/play
-0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.1%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.033
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.221
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.05
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.17
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#56
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 10 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Boston College ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense23th
Opp-adjusted defense79th
Offensive EPA/play27th
Defensive EPA/play74th
Offensive success rate20th
Explosiveness20th
Defensive havoc60th
Points per drive41th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: run defense, havoc rate, passing offense3912Florida Atlantic2021OA -0.078 / +0.062similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3623Buffalo2023OA -0.107 / -0.008similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3384Oregon2018OA +0.018 / +0.041similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3285Northwestern2020OA -0.022 / +0.067similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, havoc rate328
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Massachusetts | 55-21 | W | -20.5 | W | 62.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Holy Cross | 62-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Wake Forest | 41-34 | W | -6.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Purdue | 13-30 | L | -6.5 | L | 62.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Temple | 45-35 | W | -13.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 6 | @ NC State | 23-28 | L | +6.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Louisville | 38-20 | W | -11.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Miami | 27-14 | W | +4.0 | W | 49 | U |
| 10 | @ Virginia Tech | 31-21 | W | -2.0 | W | 57 | U |
| 11 | vs Clemson | 7-27 | L | +17.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Florida State | 21-22 | L | -2.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Syracuse | 21-42 | L | -5.0 | L | 61.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.036 | 32th | -0.079 | 77th |
| Red Zone | +0.069 | 66th | -0.027 | 60th |
| Third Down | +0.012 | 38th | -0.026 | 64th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.032 | 33th | -0.084 | 78th |
| First Half | -0.050 | 31th | -0.052 | 64th |
| Second Half | -0.021 | 39th | -0.108 | 86th |
| Early Downs | -0.016 | 47th | -0.049 | 61th |
| Passing Downs | -0.051 | 30th | -0.168 | 89th |
| Standard Downs | -0.027 | 38th | -0.029 | 58th |
| Goal to Go | +0.251 | 82th | +0.017 | 63th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 37.7%Rush 62.3%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
404.3
Pts/Drive
2.05
3rd Down%
33.9%
3&Out%
23.5%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Boston College vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Boston College | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 384 | 308 |
| Points / Game | 32.0 | 25.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 233 | 257 |
| Rushing | 114 | 103 |
| Passing | 107 | 135 |
| Penalty | 12 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 558 | 493 |
| Yards | 2,269 | 1,859 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 189.1 | 154.9 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 337 | 442 |
| Completions | 195 | 251 |
| Completion % | 57.9% | 56.8% |
| Yards | 2,583 | 2,975 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 18 |
| Passer Rating | 141.39 | 117.87 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 895 | 935 |
| Yards | 4,852 | 4,834 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 404.3 | 402.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 30 |
| Yards | 322 | 293 |
| Average | 14.0 | 9.8 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 4 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 47 | 43 |
| Yards | 1,117 | 907 |
| Average | 23.8 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 72 | 71 |
| Yards | 2,774 | 2,775 |
| Average | 38.5 | 39.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 9 |
| Yards | 331 | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 10 |
| Lost | 10 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 64 |
| Yards | 590 | 500 |
| Yards / Game | 49.2 | 41.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:50 | 32:10 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 186 | 198 |
| Conversions | 63 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 33.9% | 37.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 28 |
| Conversions | 15 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 36 |
| Score % | 80.5% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 28 |
| TD % | 68.3% | 62.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 14 |
| Made | 6 | 8 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 57.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 51 | 40 |
| Made | 46 | 38 |
| Pct | 90.2% | 95.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.