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BUF
Buffalo
BullsBalancedMid-American Conference3-9#112 (-5.37)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
18· DOverall
Offense
13· FRating
11· FPer play
24· DConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
70· BPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
79· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.107
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.098
Defensive EPA/play
-0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.053
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.62
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.18
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#112
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#93
market 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense12th
Opp-adjusted defense46th
Offensive EPA/play11th
Defensive EPA/play71th
Offensive success rate22th
Explosiveness16th
Defensive havoc55th
Points per drive15th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4172Akron2025OA -0.107 / -0.010similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3843Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3724Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, passing offense3665Texas State2018OA -0.180 / +0.024similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense363
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Wisconsin | 17-38 | L | +28.0 | W | 54 | O |
| 2 | vs Fordham | 37-40 | L | -22.5 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Liberty | 27-55 | L | +3.5 | L | 55 | O |
| 4 | @ Louisiana | 38-45 | L | +10.0 | W | 58 | O |
| 5 | @ Akron | 13-10 | W | +2.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Central Michigan | 37-13 | W | +3.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Bowling Green | 14-24 | L | -4.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Kent State | 24-6 | W | -7.0 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Toledo | 13-31 | L | +7.5 | L | 44 | U |
| 11 | vs Ohio | 10-20 | L | +8.5 | L | 39.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Miami (OH) | 10-23 | L | -5.0 | L | 37.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Eastern Michigan | 11-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.097 | 13th | -0.038 | 70th |
| Red Zone | +0.089 | 69th | +0.020 | 44th |
| Third Down | +0.162 | 41th | +0.032 | 80th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.105 | 10th | -0.037 | 67th |
| First Half | -0.141 | 7th | -0.042 | 72th |
| Second Half | -0.059 | 27th | -0.033 | 59th |
| Early Downs | -0.067 | 34th | +0.023 | 27th |
| Passing Downs | -0.069 | 21th | -0.130 | 92th |
| Standard Downs | -0.111 | 13th | +0.017 | 38th |
| Goal to Go | -0.033 | 38th | -0.057 | 58th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.5%Rush 52.5%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
318.8
Pts/Drive
1.62
3rd Down%
34.4%
3&Out%
20.6%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Buffalo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 251 | 329 |
| Points / Game | 20.9 | 27.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 208 | 215 |
| Rushing | 89 | 99 |
| Passing | 101 | 103 |
| Penalty | 18 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 435 | 433 |
| Yards | 1,603 | 2,159 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 133.6 | 179.9 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 394 | 327 |
| Completions | 212 | 207 |
| Completion % | 53.8% | 63.3% |
| Yards | 2,222 | 2,246 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.6 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 107.32 | 132.44 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 829 | 760 |
| Yards | 3,825 | 4,405 |
| Yards / Play | 4.6 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 318.8 | 367.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 17 |
| Yards | 50 | 110 |
| Average | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 17 |
| Yards | 555 | 364 |
| Average | 15.9 | 21.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 53 |
| Yards | 2,271 | 2,071 |
| Average | 42.1 | 39.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 11 |
| Yards | 232 | 108 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 15 |
| Lost | 7 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 58 | 65 |
| Yards | 499 | 559 |
| Yards / Game | 41.6 | 46.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:15 | 29:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 183 | 158 |
| Conversions | 63 | 53 |
| Conversion % | 34.4% | 33.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 18 |
| Conversions | 15 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 36.6% | 61.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 27 | 38 |
| Score % | 71.1% | 90.5% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 24 |
| TD % | 65.8% | 57.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 20 |
| Made | 11 | 17 |
| Pct | 57.9% | 85.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 39 |
| Made | 26 | 38 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.