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WKU
Western Kentucky
HilltoppersBalancedConference USA3-9#116 (-8.25)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
13· FOverall
Offense
8· FRating
15· DPer play
16· DConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
38· DRating
59· CPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.107
Defensive EPA/play
-0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.065
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.003
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.54
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.91
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.77
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense17th
Opp-adjusted defense50th
Offensive EPA/play15th
Defensive EPA/play60th
Offensive success rate23th
Explosiveness9th
Defensive havoc55th
Points per drive12th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4072Georgia Tech2022OA -0.050 / +0.061similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, run defense4033Old Dominion2022OA -0.004 / -0.034similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense3934Sam Houston2023OA -0.134 / +0.037similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive success rate3925Akron2025OA -0.107 / -0.010similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate391
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Wisconsin | 3-34 | L | +36.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 2 | vs Maine | 28-31 | L | -10.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Louisville | 17-20 | L | +24.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 4 | @ Ball State | 28-20 | W | +3.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Marshall | 17-20 | L | +3.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 7 | @ Charlotte | 14-40 | L | -9.5 | L | 44 | O |
| 8 | vs Old Dominion | 34-37 | L | -4.0 | L | 55 | O |
| 9 | vs Florida International | 17-38 | L | +3.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 10 | @ Middle Tennessee | 10-29 | L | +13.5 | L | 53 | U |
| 11 | @ Florida Atlantic | 15-34 | L | +17.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 12 | vs UTEP | 40-16 | W | -6.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Louisiana Tech | 30-15 | W | +10.5 | W | 49 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.105 | 14th | -0.037 | 61th |
| Red Zone | -0.090 | 27th | -0.300 | 95th |
| Third Down | -0.113 | 15th | +0.045 | 45th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.116 | 13th | -0.056 | 67th |
| First Half | -0.096 | 20th | -0.129 | 84th |
| Second Half | -0.115 | 11th | +0.053 | 32th |
| Early Downs | -0.069 | 22th | -0.025 | 52th |
| Passing Downs | -0.152 | 12th | -0.093 | 71th |
| Standard Downs | -0.078 | 20th | -0.009 | 48th |
| Goal to Go | -0.182 | 15th | -0.392 | 92th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.5%Rush 50.5%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
363.7
Pts/Drive
1.54
3rd Down%
38.9%
3&Out%
23.9%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 253 | 334 |
| Points / Game | 21.1 | 27.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 251 | 261 |
| Rushing | 102 | 112 |
| Passing | 125 | 127 |
| Penalty | 24 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 439 | 456 |
| Yards | 1,642 | 2,074 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 136.8 | 172.8 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 431 | 406 |
| Completions | 254 | 228 |
| Completion % | 58.9% | 56.2% |
| Yards | 2,722 | 2,985 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.3 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 118.83 | 125.82 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 870 | 862 |
| Yards | 4,364 | 5,059 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 363.7 | 421.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 7 |
| Yards | 48 | 72 |
| Average | 4.8 | 10.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 35 |
| Yards | 699 | 758 |
| Average | 20.6 | 21.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 52 |
| Yards | 2,512 | 2,059 |
| Average | 36.9 | 39.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 10 |
| Yards | 214 | 109 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 12 |
| Lost | 6 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 79 | 70 |
| Yards | 683 | 720 |
| Yards / Game | 56.9 | 60.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:24 | 30:36 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 185 | 164 |
| Conversions | 72 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 38.9% | 37.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 22 |
| Conversions | 9 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 37.5% | 54.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 49 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 41 |
| Score % | 76.2% | 83.7% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 23 |
| TD % | 59.5% | 46.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 29 |
| Made | 10 | 23 |
| Pct | 58.8% | 79.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 33 |
| Made | 27 | 33 |
| Pct | 93.1% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.