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Baylor
BearsBalancedBig 12 Conference2-7#89 (-2.76)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
31· DOverall
Offense
15· DRating
12· FPer play
8· FConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
80· BPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.140
Defensive EPA/play
-0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.2%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.007
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.55
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.21
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.77
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#89
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#71
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile
Peer Context
Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense5th
Opp-adjusted defense77th
Offensive EPA/play12th
Defensive EPA/play81th
Offensive success rate7th
Explosiveness7th
Defensive havoc44th
Points per drive13th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Sam Houston2023OA -0.134 / +0.037similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate4392Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4073Northwestern2023OA -0.030 / +0.013similar: passing offense, pass defense, run defense3954Virginia2017OA -0.067 / +0.061similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, rushing offense3955Texas2017OA -0.139 / +0.201similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate391
2020 Schedule & Results
9 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | vs Kansas | 47-14 | W | -17.5 | W | 62 | U |
| 5 | @ West Virginia | 21-27 | L | -2.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 8 | @ Texas | 16-27 | L | +9.0 | L | 60.75 | U |
| 9 | vs TCU | 23-33 | L | +2.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 10 | @ Iowa State | 31-38 | L | +14.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Texas Tech | 23-24 | L | +1.5 | W | 57.75 | U |
| 13 | vs Kansas State | 32-31 | W | -5.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 14 | @ Oklahoma | 14-27 | L | +21.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 15 | vs Oklahoma State | 3-42 | L | +5.5 | L | 49 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-5
44.4%
O/U Record
3-6
33.3%
Straight Up
2-7
22.2%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.117 | 10th | -0.063 | 80th |
| Red Zone | -0.053 | 39th | +0.002 | 48th |
| Third Down | -0.063 | 26th | -0.210 | 94th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.125 | 14th | -0.089 | 86th |
| First Half | -0.220 | 5th | -0.155 | 94th |
| Second Half | -0.022 | 38th | +0.038 | 48th |
| Early Downs | -0.112 | 13th | -0.070 | 78th |
| Passing Downs | -0.151 | 14th | -0.076 | 82th |
| Standard Downs | -0.094 | 13th | -0.055 | 74th |
| Goal to Go | -0.038 | 39th | -0.232 | 82th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.6%Rush 47.4%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
310.2
Pts/Drive
1.55
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
27.2%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 9 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Baylor | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 210 | 263 |
| Points / Game | 23.3 | 29.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 165 | 176 |
| Rushing | 60 | 80 |
| Passing | 86 | 83 |
| Penalty | 19 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 298 | 366 |
| Yards | 813 | 1,624 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.7 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 90.3 | 180.4 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 331 | 259 |
| Completions | 205 | 165 |
| Completion % | 61.9% | 63.7% |
| Yards | 1,979 | 1,827 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.0 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 121.28 | 128.98 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 629 | 625 |
| Yards | 2,792 | 3,451 |
| Yards / Play | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 310.2 | 383.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 13 |
| Yards | 43 | 109 |
| Average | 3.9 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 16 |
| Yards | 826 | 393 |
| Average | 25.8 | 24.6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 57 | 45 |
| Yards | 2,259 | 1,752 |
| Average | 39.6 | 38.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 8 |
| Yards | 204 | 73 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 5 | 10 |
| Lost | 1 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 65 | 60 |
| Yards | 562 | 514 |
| Yards / Game | 62.4 | 57.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:19 | 30:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 142 | 130 |
| Conversions | 47 | 51 |
| Conversion % | 33.1% | 39.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 13 |
| Conversions | 12 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 69.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 28 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 23 | 32 |
| Score % | 82.1% | 86.5% |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 24 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 64.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 12 |
| Made | 10 | 12 |
| Pct | 62.5% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 31 |
| Made | 22 | 29 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 93.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.