Fourth Down Data
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SHSU

Sam Houston

BearkatsBalanced
Conference USA3-9#113 (-5.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

17· DOverall
Offense
7· FRating
10· FPer play
15· DConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
76· BPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.134
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.037
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.109
Defensive EPA/play
-0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.3%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.058
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.092
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.52

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.86
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#113
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#107
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 37 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Sam Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
4th
Opp-adjusted defense
66th
Offensive EPA/play
10th
Defensive EPA/play
76th
Offensive success rate
12th
Explosiveness
7th
Defensive havoc
8th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, pass defense4382Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive success rate3913Northwestern2018OA -0.019 / +0.090similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3644Fresno State2024OA -0.025 / +0.018similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3585Northwestern2023OA -0.030 / +0.013similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate354

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ BYU0-14L+20.0W46.5U
2vs Air Force3-13L+13.5W36.5U
4@ Houston7-38L+7.0P36.5O
5vs Jacksonville State28-35L+20.5W46U
6@ Liberty16-21L+3.5L42.5U
7@ New Mexico State13-27L-5.0L41O
8vs Florida International27-33L-3.0L36.5O
9vs UTEP34-37L----
10vs Kennesaw State24-21W-16.5L41.75O
11@ Louisiana Tech42-27W+7.5W48.5O
12@ Western Kentucky23-28L+13.0W52.5U
13vs Middle Tennessee23-20W+3.5W50U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS6-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off28thRush Off4thRed Zone Off65th3rd Down Off16thPass Def93thRush Def47thRed Zone Def53th3rd Down Def69th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10610th-0.05981th
Red Zone+0.06665th-0.01953th
Third Down-0.01016th+0.09969th
No Garbage Time-0.1179th-0.05781th
First Half-0.07122th-0.00659th
Second Half-0.14010th-0.11788th
Early Downs-0.1854th-0.03447th
Passing Downs-0.03228th-0.14493th
Standard Downs-0.1504th-0.01547th
Goal to Go-0.04236th-0.06060th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.9%Rush 45.1%
Havoc/Game
10.4
Havoc Rate
15.2%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
311.4
Pts/Drive
1.52
3rd Down%
35.7%
3&Out%
25.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Sam Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSam HoustonOpponents
Scoring
Points240314
Points / Game20.026.2
First Downs
Total219223
Rushing69104
Passing126109
Penalty2410
Rushing
Attempts368441
Yards1,0671,955
Yards / Carry2.94.4
Yards / Game88.9162.9
Touchdowns1325
Passing
Attempts448364
Completions282235
Completion %62.9%64.6%
Yards2,6702,778
Yards / Attempt6.07.6
Touchdowns1514
Interceptions1213
Passer Rating118.70134.22
Total Offense
Plays816805
Yards3,7374,733
Yards / Play4.65.9
Yards / Game311.4394.4
Punt Returns
Returns2025
Yards129143
Average6.55.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2527
Yards440609
Average17.622.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7657
Yards3,1532,486
Average41.543.6
Interception Returns
Returns1312
Yards217140
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1315
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties6180
Yards506710
Yards / Game42.259.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4230:18
Third Downs
Attempts182167
Conversions6562
Conversion %35.7%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2218
Conversions1310
Conversion %59.1%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips3236
Scores (TD + FG)2832
Score %87.5%88.9%
Touchdowns2023
TD %62.5%63.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1420
Made1114
Pct78.6%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2837
Made2736
Pct96.4%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →