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FRES
Fresno State
BulldogsBalancedPac-12 Conference6-7#87 (-2.37)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
35· DOverall
Offense
27· DRating
28· DPer play
33· DConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
70· BPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
59· CRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.048
Defensive EPA/play
-0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.011
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.022
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#87
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#49
market 38 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 7 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense24th
Opp-adjusted defense68th
Offensive EPA/play28th
Defensive EPA/play71th
Offensive success rate41th
Explosiveness32th
Defensive havoc50th
Points per drive37th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Eastern Michigan2018OA -0.073 / +0.100similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3962Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate3873Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, turnover rate3834Sam Houston2023OA -0.134 / +0.037similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3585Washington2026OA -0.025 / +0.023similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense357
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Michigan | 10-30 | L | +21.0 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Sacramento State | 46-30 | W | -16.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
| 3 | vs New Mexico State | 48-0 | W | -19.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 4 | @ New Mexico | 38-21 | W | -14.0 | W | 60 | U |
| 5 | @ UNLV | 14-59 | L | +2.0 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Washington State | 17-25 | L | -2.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Nevada | 24-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs San José State | 33-10 | W | -5.0 | W | 55 | U |
| 10 | vs Hawai'i | 20-21 | L | -13.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Air Force | 28-36 | L | -10.5 | L | 41 | O |
| 13 | vs Colorado State | 28-22 | W | -3.0 | W | 46 | O |
| 14 | @ UCLA | 13-20 | L | +8.5 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 17 | vs Northern Illinois | 20-28 | L | +3.0 | L | 40.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.044 | 27th | -0.041 | 70th |
| Red Zone | +0.049 | 60th | -0.109 | 72th |
| Third Down | -0.060 | 13th | +0.050 | 58th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.048 | 28th | -0.058 | 71th |
| First Half | +0.088 | 78th | -0.092 | 78th |
| Second Half | -0.183 | 3th | +0.009 | 46th |
| Early Downs | -0.042 | 34th | -0.080 | 72th |
| Passing Downs | -0.083 | 23th | -0.013 | 54th |
| Standard Downs | -0.024 | 40th | -0.056 | 69th |
| Goal to Go | -0.102 | 31th | +0.070 | 40th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.0%Rush 47.0%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
17.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
340.6
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
39.5%
3&Out%
22.9%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Fresno State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 339 | 323 |
| Points / Game | 26.1 | 24.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 245 | 271 |
| Rushing | 73 | 111 |
| Passing | 141 | 129 |
| Penalty | 31 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 383 | 474 |
| Yards | 1,276 | 1,812 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 98.2 | 139.4 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 432 | 469 |
| Completions | 300 | 256 |
| Completion % | 69.4% | 54.6% |
| Yards | 3,152 | 2,811 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 139.53 | 113.31 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 815 | 943 |
| Yards | 4,428 | 4,623 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 340.6 | 355.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 11 |
| Yards | 240 | 142 |
| Average | 12.0 | 12.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 26 |
| Yards | 336 | 533 |
| Average | 14.6 | 20.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 55 |
| Yards | 2,375 | 2,307 |
| Average | 40.3 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 14 |
| Yards | 297 | 214 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 14 |
| Lost | 3 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 80 | 90 |
| Yards | 711 | 820 |
| Yards / Game | 54.7 | 63.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:30 | 32:30 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 162 | 190 |
| Conversions | 64 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 39.5% | 35.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 37 |
| Conversions | 8 | 21 |
| Conversion % | 42.1% | 56.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 42 |
| Score % | 83.0% | 80.8% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 29 |
| TD % | 70.2% | 55.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 19 |
| Made | 13 | 17 |
| Pct | 65.0% | 89.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 32 |
| Made | 38 | 32 |
| Pct | 97.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 7 |
| Made | 2 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.