Fourth Down Data
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EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesBalanced
Mid-American Conference7-6#54 (+2.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
34· DRating
22· DPer play
29· DConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
88· BPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
82· BRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.073
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.100
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.081
Defensive EPA/play
-0.129
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.047
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.014
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.03

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.41
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#54
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 23 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
23th
Opp-adjusted defense
83th
Offensive EPA/play
22th
Defensive EPA/play
89th
Offensive success rate
26th
Explosiveness
8th
Defensive havoc
42th
Points per drive
37th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Fresno State2024OA -0.025 / +0.018similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3952Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, turnover rate3703Iowa2017OA -0.004 / +0.093similar: passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense3604Florida Atlantic2021OA -0.078 / +0.062similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate3565Toledo2024OA -0.022 / +0.030similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA350

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Monmouth (NJ)51-17W+3.0W45.5U
2@ Purdue20-19W+15.0W50U
3@ Buffalo28-35L+3.0L54O
4@ San Diego State20-23L+13.0W48.5U
5vs Northern Illinois23-26L-3.5L50.5U
6@ Western Michigan24-27L+4.5W59U
7vs Toledo28-26W+2.0W62U
8@ Ball State42-20W-2.5W45O
9vs Army22-37L+1.5L47.5O
10vs Central Michigan17-7W-14.0L46U
11vs Akron27-7W-11.0W41.5U
13@ Kent State28-20W-12.5L52U
16vs Georgia Southern21-23L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off11thRed Zone Off83th3rd Down Off31thPass Def78thRush Def82thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07818th-0.09983th
Red Zone+0.14183th-0.33296th
Third Down-0.03731th+0.00557th
No Garbage Time-0.08221th-0.11887th
First Half-0.08723th-0.08873th
Second Half-0.07022th-0.11288th
Early Downs-0.03439th-0.07274th
Passing Downs-0.02239th-0.11778th
Standard Downs-0.11011th-0.09082th
Goal to Go+0.15167th+0.21530th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.0%Rush 56.0%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
18.0%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
372.1
Pts/Drive
2.03
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
26.4%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points351287
Points / Game27.022.1
First Downs
Total238245
Rushing94135
Passing12481
Penalty2029
Rushing
Attempts493580
Yards1,8902,646
Yards / Carry3.84.6
Yards / Game145.4203.5
Touchdowns2319
Passing
Attempts387342
Completions246189
Completion %63.6%55.3%
Yards2,9471,953
Yards / Attempt7.65.7
Touchdowns2112
Interceptions413
Passer Rating143.37107.21
Total Offense
Plays880922
Yards4,8374,599
Yards / Play5.55.0
Yards / Game372.1353.8
Punt Returns
Returns2125
Yards209247
Average10.09.9
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns928
Yards170503
Average18.918.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7165
Yards3,0782,577
Average43.439.6
Interception Returns
Returns134
Yards15517
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1931
Lost1011
Penalties
Penalties9691
Yards904829
Yards / Game69.563.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5330:06
Third Downs
Attempts181200
Conversions6075
Conversion %33.1%37.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2729
Conversions1312
Conversion %48.1%41.4%
Red Zone
Trips5148
Scores (TD + FG)4035
Score %78.4%72.9%
Touchdowns3022
TD %58.8%45.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2023
Made1218
Pct60.0%78.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4131
Made4129
Pct100.0%93.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →