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IOWA
Iowa
HawkeyesBalancedBig Ten Conference8-5#20 (+14.00)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
85· BOverall
Offense
77· BRating
28· DPer play
16· DConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
79· BPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.093
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.082
Defensive EPA/play
-0.131
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.3%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.091
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.86
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.90
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.88
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#49
model 29 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Iowa ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense50th
Opp-adjusted defense80th
Offensive EPA/play29th
Defensive EPA/play80th
Offensive success rate14th
Explosiveness32th
Defensive havoc77th
Points per drive44th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Toledo2024OA -0.022 / +0.030similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3882Northwestern2020OA -0.022 / +0.067similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense3683Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: offensive success rate, run defense, turnover rate3654Eastern Michigan2018OA -0.073 / +0.100similar: passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense3605Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate344
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Wyoming | 24-3 | W | -2.5 | W | 46 | O |
| 2 | @ Iowa State | 44-41 | W | -3.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 3 | vs North Texas | 31-14 | W | -19.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 4 | vs Penn State | 19-21 | L | +13.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 5 | @ Michigan State | 10-17 | L | +3.5 | L | 44 | U |
| 6 | vs Illinois | 45-16 | W | -16.0 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Northwestern | 10-17 | L | +3.0 | L | 46 | U |
| 9 | vs Minnesota | 17-10 | W | -7.0 | P | 43.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Ohio State | 55-24 | W | +21.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 11 | @ Wisconsin | 14-38 | L | +12.5 | L | 45 | O |
| 12 | vs Purdue | 15-24 | L | -6.0 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Nebraska | 56-14 | W | -4.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 18 | @ Boston College | 27-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
PWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.081 | 27th | -0.155 | 88th |
| Red Zone | +0.129 | 76th | -0.143 | 77th |
| Third Down | -0.184 | 26th | -0.381 | 94th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.082 | 29th | -0.131 | 79th |
| First Half | -0.113 | 16th | -0.103 | 69th |
| Second Half | -0.050 | 37th | -0.209 | 95th |
| Early Downs | -0.094 | 24th | -0.101 | 77th |
| Passing Downs | -0.053 | 38th | -0.096 | 69th |
| Standard Downs | -0.097 | 23th | -0.183 | 93th |
| Goal to Go | -0.061 | 41th | -0.020 | 48th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.5%Rush 57.5%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
329.5
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
34.4%
3&Out%
32.7%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — Iowa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Iowa | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 367 | 259 |
| Points / Game | 28.2 | 19.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 226 | 244 |
| Rushing | 103 | 96 |
| Passing | 106 | 130 |
| Penalty | 17 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 481 | 455 |
| Yards | 1,810 | 1,880 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 139.2 | 144.6 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 355 | 459 |
| Completions | 199 | 257 |
| Completion % | 56.1% | 56.0% |
| Yards | 2,473 | 2,767 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 21 |
| Passer Rating | 136.29 | 111.14 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 836 | 914 |
| Yards | 4,283 | 4,647 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 329.5 | 357.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 17 |
| Yards | 123 | 79 |
| Average | 6.2 | 4.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 37 |
| Yards | 831 | 632 |
| Average | 24.4 | 17.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 71 | 66 |
| Yards | 2,741 | 2,572 |
| Average | 38.6 | 39.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 6 |
| Yards | 423 | 43 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 15 |
| Lost | 13 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 66 | 79 |
| Yards | 534 | 711 |
| Yards / Game | 41.1 | 54.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:03 | 29:57 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 180 | 188 |
| Conversions | 62 | 65 |
| Conversion % | 34.4% | 34.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 25 |
| Conversions | 14 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 63.6% | 48.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 49 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 32 |
| Score % | 79.6% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 18 |
| TD % | 65.3% | 45.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 22 |
| Made | 11 | 16 |
| Pct | 84.6% | 72.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 44 | 29 |
| Made | 44 | 29 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.