Fourth Down Data
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TROY

Troy

TrojansBalanced
Sun Belt Conference8-6#84 (-4.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
33· DRating
15· DPer play
18· DConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
71· BPer play
68· CConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.100
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.108
Defensive EPA/play
-0.079
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.5%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.154
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.82

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.72
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.38
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#84
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#89
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 5 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Troy ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
16th
Opp-adjusted defense
62th
Offensive EPA/play
15th
Defensive EPA/play
72th
Offensive success rate
16th
Explosiveness
24th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
25th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2017OA -0.067 / +0.061similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4262Buffalo2025OA -0.180 / -0.001similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate4263Sacramento State2026OA -0.109 / +0.054similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4254Toledo2024OA -0.022 / +0.030similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4235Buffalo2023OA -0.107 / -0.008similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate420

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Nicholls State38-20W-21.3L48.5O
2@ Clemson16-27L+13.0W46U
3vs Memphis7-28L+4.0L51U
4@ Buffalo21-17W+16.5W26.5O
6vs South Alabama31-24W+2.5W47O
7@ Texas State48-41W+7.5W54.5O
8@ UL Monroe37-14W-15.5W50.5O
9vs Louisiana35-23W-7.0W47O
10vs Arkansas State10-23L-8.5L52.5U
12@ Old Dominion0-33L----
13vs Georgia State31-19W-7.5W37.5O
14@ Southern Miss28-18W-4.5W40.5O
15@ James Madison14-31L----
17@ Jacksonville State13-17L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-5
64.3%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
8-6
57.1%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS6-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off32thRush Off6thRed Zone Off65th3rd Down Off56thPass Def84thRush Def63thRed Zone Def72th3rd Down Def78th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11810th-0.08277th
Red Zone+0.07465th-0.10172th
Third Down+0.10456th-0.08778th
No Garbage Time-0.11214th-0.08173th
First Half-0.1807th-0.12586th
Second Half-0.04932th-0.04363th
Early Downs-0.1456th-0.03357th
Passing Downs-0.08432th-0.14284th
Standard Downs-0.1396th-0.04863th
Goal to Go+0.42194th+0.26714th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.9%Rush 53.1%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
307.2
Pts/Drive
1.82
3rd Down%
38.8%
3&Out%
21.6%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — Troy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTroyOpponents
Scoring
Points329335
Points / Game23.523.9
First Downs
Total242263
Rushing86121
Passing139122
Penalty1720
Rushing
Attempts492545
Yards1,3722,475
Yards / Carry2.84.5
Yards / Game98.0176.8
Touchdowns1722
Passing
Attempts434390
Completions251235
Completion %57.8%60.3%
Yards2,9292,747
Yards / Attempt6.77.0
Touchdowns2016
Interceptions1210
Passer Rating124.20127.83
Total Offense
Plays926935
Yards4,3015,222
Yards / Play4.65.6
Yards / Game307.2373.0
Punt Returns
Returns1919
Yards98116
Average5.26.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3421
Yards714375
Average21.017.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6961
Yards3,1372,408
Average45.539.5
Interception Returns
Returns1012
Yards191101
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1513
Lost68
Penalties
Penalties7879
Yards729688
Yards / Game52.149.1
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5530:05
Third Downs
Attempts214204
Conversions8378
Conversion %38.8%38.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3631
Conversions1714
Conversion %47.2%45.2%
Red Zone
Trips4045
Scores (TD + FG)3435
Score %85.0%77.8%
Touchdowns2521
TD %62.5%46.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1828
Made1221
Pct66.7%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4035
Made3934
Pct97.5%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →