Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-8#99 (-4.09)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

27· DOverall
Offense
10· FRating
18· DPer play
16· DConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
68· CPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
84· BRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
9· F3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.094
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.125
Defensive EPA/play
-0.075
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.1%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.050
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.45
own return game
Return Defense
-0.32
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#99
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#102
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 53 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
21th
Opp-adjusted defense
56th
Offensive EPA/play
19th
Defensive EPA/play
69th
Offensive success rate
11th
Explosiveness
8th
Defensive havoc
63th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense4192Northern Illinois2019OA -0.044 / -0.008similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3913Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3824Indiana2017OA -0.039 / +0.073similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, run defense3815Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate375

2022 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Old Dominion17-20L----
2vs Boston College27-10W-2.5W46U
3vs Wofford27-7W+2.5L50.25U
4vs West Virginia10-33L----
5@ North Carolina10-41L+9.0L51.5U
6@ Pittsburgh29-45L+14.5L42O
7vs Miami14-20L+7.0W46.5U
9@ NC State21-22L----
10vs Georgia Tech27-28L-3.0L40.5O
11@ Duke7-24L+9.5L49.5U
12@ Liberty23-22W+10.0W47U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-6
40.0%
O/U Record
3-7
30.0%
Straight Up
3-8
27.3%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off26thRush Off16thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off9thPass Def74thRush Def64thRed Zone Def74th3rd Down Def81th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12716th-0.06969th
Red Zone+0.14785th-0.16074th
Third Down-0.2109th-0.09181th
No Garbage Time-0.12519th-0.07570th
First Half-0.09032th-0.08775th
Second Half-0.16711th-0.05060th
Early Downs-0.08521th-0.03853th
Passing Downs-0.10526th-0.07774th
Standard Downs-0.14116th-0.06364th
Goal to Go-0.03646th-0.09256th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.1%Rush 52.9%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
19.4%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
314.1
Pts/Drive
1.41
3rd Down%
31.4%
3&Out%
28.5%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 11 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points212272
Points / Game19.324.7
First Downs
Total192222
Rushing7188
Passing99106
Penalty2228
Rushing
Attempts388381
Yards1,2191,487
Yards / Carry3.13.9
Yards / Game110.8135.2
Touchdowns1515
Passing
Attempts346374
Completions203222
Completion %58.7%59.4%
Yards2,2362,596
Yards / Attempt6.56.9
Touchdowns913
Interceptions94
Passer Rating116.34127.00
Total Offense
Plays734755
Yards3,4554,083
Yards / Play4.75.4
Yards / Game314.1371.2
Punt Returns
Returns2411
Yards22436
Average9.33.3
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2713
Yards508353
Average18.827.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts7470
Yards3,0692,920
Average41.541.7
Interception Returns
Returns49
Yards3851
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1315
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties8169
Yards643596
Yards / Game58.554.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5631:04
Third Downs
Attempts159164
Conversions5055
Conversion %31.4%33.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1416
Conversions610
Conversion %42.9%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips2837
Scores (TD + FG)2334
Score %82.1%91.9%
Touchdowns1819
TD %64.3%51.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1221
Made919
Pct75.0%90.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2527
Made2327
Pct92.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →