Fourth Down Data
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FSU

Florida State

SeminolesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference5-7#105 (-6.00)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

21· DOverall
Offense
11· FRating
8· FPer play
4· FConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
69· CPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
53· CRed-zone D
11· F3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.108
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.043
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.168
Defensive EPA/play
-0.065
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.1%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.103
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.39

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#105
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#5
recruiting 100 spots higher
55 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
15th
Opp-adjusted defense
66th
Offensive EPA/play
8th
Defensive EPA/play
69th
Offensive success rate
3th
Explosiveness
21th
Defensive havoc
44th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Boston College2022OA -0.150 / -0.005similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA4952Michigan State2020OA -0.049 / +0.004similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4273Akron2023OA -0.232 / -0.010similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate4234Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive EPA4165San José State2021OA -0.188 / +0.025similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense416

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Virginia Tech3-24L-7.0L54U
2vs Samford36-26W-33.0L56.5O
3@ Syracuse7-30L-3.5L69U
4vs Northern Illinois37-19W-9.5W44.5O
5@ Louisville28-24W-4.5L47.5O
6@ Miami27-28L+14.0W48.5O
8vs Wake Forest38-17W-10.5W57.5U
9vs Clemson10-59L+18.0L49.5O
10@ NC State28-47L+9.5L52O
11@ Notre Dame13-42L+16.5L49.5O
12vs Boston College22-21W+2.5W47.5U
13vs Florida14-41L+8.5L52O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off15thRed Zone Off39th3rd Down Off11thPass Def43thRush Def86thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def52th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1338th-0.05972th
Red Zone-0.02739th-0.00854th
Third Down-0.15611th+0.01652th
No Garbage Time-0.1598th-0.06870th
First Half-0.1669th-0.05264th
Second Half-0.09415th-0.06676th
Early Downs-0.11711th-0.06871th
Passing Downs-0.1698th+0.04643th
Standard Downs-0.10615th-0.11986th
Goal to Go-0.00639th-0.26787th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.7%Rush 46.3%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
361.2
Pts/Drive
1.39
3rd Down%
29.1%
3&Out%
31.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida StateOpponents
Scoring
Points263378
Points / Game21.931.5
First Downs
Total207262
Rushing61102
Passing129135
Penalty1725
Rushing
Attempts392503
Yards1,0931,772
Yards / Carry2.83.5
Yards / Game91.1147.7
Touchdowns1116
Passing
Attempts455451
Completions260246
Completion %57.1%54.5%
Yards3,2413,224
Yards / Attempt7.17.1
Touchdowns2030
Interceptions1312
Passer Rating125.77131.22
Total Offense
Plays847954
Yards4,3344,996
Yards / Play5.15.2
Yards / Game361.2416.3
Punt Returns
Returns2133
Yards251364
Average12.011.0
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns3312
Yards648305
Average19.625.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts8370
Yards3,5452,864
Average42.740.9
Interception Returns
Returns1213
Yards125188
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2217
Lost133
Penalties
Penalties11069
Yards851607
Yards / Game70.950.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3832:21
Third Downs
Attempts189200
Conversions5573
Conversion %29.1%36.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2428
Conversions1211
Conversion %50.0%39.3%
Red Zone
Trips3258
Scores (TD + FG)2548
Score %78.1%82.8%
Touchdowns1933
TD %59.4%56.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1721
Made1117
Pct64.7%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3144
Made3043
Pct96.8%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →