Fourth Down Data
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SJSU

San José State

SpartansBalanced
Mountain West Conference5-7#102 (-4.12)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

24· DOverall
Offense
7· FRating
7· FPer play
13· FConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
65· CRating
80· BPer play
68· CConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
47· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.188
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.173
Defensive EPA/play
-0.080
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.3%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.093
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.257
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.61

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.99
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.69
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.50
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#102
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#58
market 44 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 30 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
2th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
7th
Defensive EPA/play
80th
Offensive success rate
10th
Explosiveness
34th
Defensive havoc
68th
Points per drive
15th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San Diego State2022OA -0.107 / +0.044similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4162Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense4163East Carolina2023OA -0.182 / +0.019similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense3914Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: pass defense, passing offense, takeaway rate3825Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive EPA368

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Southern Utah45-14W-25.5W57O
1@ USC7-30L+14.0L59.5U
3@ Hawai'i17-13W-8.0L63U
4@ Western Michigan3-23L+2.5L61.5U
5vs New Mexico State37-31W-27.5L51.5O
6@ Colorado State14-32L+9.0W41U
7vs San Diego State13-19L-5.0W46.5O
8@ UNLV27-20W----
9vs Wyoming27-21W-3.0W41O
10@ Nevada24-27L+10.0W54.5U
11vs Utah State17-48L-4.5L56.5O
13vs Fresno State9-40L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off15thRush Off4thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off2thPass Def60thRush Def77thRed Zone Def62th3rd Down Def47th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1943th-0.06977th
Red Zone-0.21113th-0.09362th
Third Down-0.4082th+0.09547th
No Garbage Time-0.1698th-0.07780th
First Half-0.2036th-0.10583th
Second Half-0.1854th-0.03358th
Early Downs-0.13111th-0.11790th
Passing Downs-0.15015th-0.03360th
Standard Downs-0.2194th-0.08777th
Goal to Go-0.11038th-0.02453th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.2%Rush 46.8%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
340.5
Pts/Drive
1.61
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
21.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan José StateOpponents
Scoring
Points240318
Points / Game20.026.5
First Downs
Total200247
Rushing7787
Passing110133
Penalty1327
Rushing
Attempts353459
Yards1,4411,623
Yards / Carry4.13.5
Yards / Game120.1135.3
Touchdowns129
Passing
Attempts402408
Completions207256
Completion %51.5%62.7%
Yards2,6452,833
Yards / Attempt6.66.9
Touchdowns1523
Interceptions106
Passer Rating114.10136.73
Total Offense
Plays755867
Yards4,0864,456
Yards / Play5.45.1
Yards / Game340.5371.3
Punt Returns
Returns1811
Yards13837
Average7.73.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3122
Yards587400
Average18.918.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6761
Yards2,9762,643
Average44.443.3
Interception Returns
Returns610
Yards99219
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles2610
Lost146
Penalties
Penalties8756
Yards782525
Yards / Game65.243.8
Time of Possession
Per Game26:2833:15
Third Downs
Attempts164189
Conversions5575
Conversion %33.5%39.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1218
Conversions411
Conversion %33.3%61.1%
Red Zone
Trips3846
Scores (TD + FG)3139
Score %81.6%84.8%
Touchdowns2023
TD %52.6%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1931
Made1522
Pct78.9%71.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2835
Made2734
Pct96.4%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →