Fourth Down Data
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SDSU

San Diego State

AztecsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference7-6#64 (+0.55)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

53· COverall
Offense
18· DRating
9· FPer play
7· FConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
82· BPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
6· FRed-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.107
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.194
Defensive EPA/play
-0.111
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.0%
Def Success Rate
42.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.083
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.104
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.99
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.69
own return game
Return Defense
-0.40
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#64
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#49
market 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
model & recruiting agree
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San Diego State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
16th
Opp-adjusted defense
69th
Offensive EPA/play
9th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
5th
Explosiveness
9th
Defensive havoc
76th
Points per drive
14th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San José State2021OA -0.188 / +0.025similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4162Utah2024OA -0.058 / +0.063similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4133Michigan2024OA -0.043 / +0.043similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, run defense4014Western Michigan2022OA -0.132 / +0.026similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive success rate3965Michigan State2018OA -0.123 / +0.238similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, rushing offense384

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Arizona20-38L-6.0L46.5O
2vs Idaho State38-7W-33.5L49U
3@ Utah7-35L+21.0L48.5U
4vs Toledo17-14W+6.5L39O
5@ Boise State13-35L----
6vs Hawai'i16-14W-23.5L48.5U
8@ Nevada23-7W-7.0W36U
9@ Fresno State28-32L+8.5W41O
10vs UNLV14-10W-6.5L48.5U
11vs San José State43-27W-14.5W39.5O
12@ New Mexico34-10W----
13vs Air Force3-13L+1.5L44U
17vs Middle Tennessee23-25L-7.0L49.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-6
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off46thRush Off1thRed Zone Off6th3rd Down Off24thPass Def87thRush Def68thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def55th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1837th-0.11786th
Red Zone-0.3386th-0.36697th
Third Down-0.08124th+0.03755th
No Garbage Time-0.1889th-0.11784th
First Half-0.13318th-0.20495th
Second Half-0.2284th-0.01545th
Early Downs-0.2891th-0.10181th
Passing Downs-0.02946th-0.18487th
Standard Downs-0.2821th-0.07768th
Goal to Go-0.3838th+0.05736th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.2%Rush 57.8%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
20.8%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
324.8
Pts/Drive
1.51
3rd Down%
29.4%
3&Out%
25.2%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — San Diego State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan Diego StateOpponents
Scoring
Points279267
Points / Game21.520.5
First Downs
Total206226
Rushing8885
Passing106121
Penalty1220
Rushing
Attempts470436
Yards1,8621,480
Yards / Carry4.03.4
Yards / Game143.2113.8
Touchdowns1113
Passing
Attempts343416
Completions186255
Completion %54.2%61.3%
Yards2,3602,715
Yards / Attempt6.96.5
Touchdowns1521
Interceptions1413
Passer Rating118.29126.53
Total Offense
Plays813852
Yards4,2224,195
Yards / Play5.24.9
Yards / Game324.8322.7
Punt Returns
Returns2626
Yards177188
Average6.87.2
Touchdowns30
Kickoff Returns
Returns3724
Yards753493
Average20.420.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6981
Yards3,1573,172
Average45.839.2
Interception Returns
Returns1314
Yards3494
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2312
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties9667
Yards772546
Yards / Game59.442.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3128:19
Third Downs
Attempts177183
Conversions5264
Conversion %29.4%35.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2113
Conversions154
Conversion %71.4%30.8%
Red Zone
Trips3542
Scores (TD + FG)2929
Score %82.9%69.0%
Touchdowns1322
TD %37.1%52.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2515
Made2010
Pct80.0%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3131
Made3131
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →