Fourth Down Data
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WMU

Western Michigan

BroncosRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference5-7#119 (-6.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

12· FOverall
Offense
3· FRating
7· FPer play
9· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
78· BPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
26· D3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.132
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.026
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.205
Defensive EPA/play
-0.103
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.9%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.102
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.33

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.40
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.55
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#119
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#97
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 44 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
10th
Opp-adjusted defense
62th
Offensive EPA/play
7th
Defensive EPA/play
79th
Offensive success rate
7th
Explosiveness
10th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Central Michigan2018OA -0.237 / +0.049similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4442Southern Miss2021OA -0.274 / +0.086similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, offensive success rate4373Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4014San Diego State2022OA -0.107 / +0.044similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive success rate3965California2018OA -0.154 / +0.144similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense390

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Michigan State13-35L----
2@ Ball State37-30W-6.5W51.5O
3vs Pittsburgh13-34L+11.0L47.5U
4@ San José State6-34L+6.5L49U
5vs New Hampshire44-7W-15.0W52.5U
6vs Eastern Michigan23-45L-6.0L55.5O
7vs Ohio14-33L+1.0L58.5U
8@ Miami (OH)16-10W+6.5W44.25U
10@ Bowling Green9-13L0.0L49.5U
11vs Northern Illinois21-24L+10.5W49.5U
12@ Central Michigan12-10W+7.5W52.5U
13vs Toledo20-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
2-10
16.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off7thRed Zone Off1th3rd Down Off26thPass Def92thRush Def70thRed Zone Def91th3rd Down Def99th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1956th-0.13090th
Red Zone-0.5521th-0.28491th
Third Down-0.07026th-0.43499th
No Garbage Time-0.2037th-0.10281th
First Half-0.1947th-0.05061th
Second Half-0.1966th-0.21198th
Early Downs-0.1869th-0.02750th
Passing Downs-0.18310th-0.21892th
Standard Downs-0.2037th-0.08370th
Goal to Go-0.4865th-0.18471th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.9%Rush 58.1%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
22.0%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
12.2
Yards/Game
301.9
Pts/Drive
1.33
3rd Down%
31.4%
3&Out%
28.7%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points228289
Points / Game19.024.1
First Downs
Total200216
Rushing8485
Passing90104
Penalty2627
Rushing
Attempts465427
Yards1,6351,683
Yards / Carry3.53.9
Yards / Game136.3140.3
Touchdowns1418
Passing
Attempts335351
Completions167203
Completion %49.9%57.8%
Yards1,9882,545
Yards / Attempt5.97.3
Touchdowns1015
Interceptions1311
Passer Rating101.79126.58
Total Offense
Plays800778
Yards3,6234,228
Yards / Play4.55.4
Yards / Game301.9352.3
Punt Returns
Returns1021
Yards47119
Average4.75.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3529
Yards664654
Average19.022.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7258
Yards2,9392,363
Average40.840.7
Interception Returns
Returns1113
Yards180154
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1518
Lost814
Penalties
Penalties8081
Yards755708
Yards / Game62.959.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2729:33
Third Downs
Attempts185158
Conversions5849
Conversion %31.4%31.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2718
Conversions137
Conversion %48.1%38.9%
Red Zone
Trips3345
Scores (TD + FG)2436
Score %72.7%80.0%
Touchdowns1424
TD %42.4%53.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1922
Made1317
Pct68.4%77.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2234
Made2134
Pct95.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts50
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →