Fourth Down Data
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USM

Southern Miss

Golden EaglesRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference3-9#114 (-6.71)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

15· DOverall
Offense
1· FRating
1· FPer play
4· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
92· A-Per play
74· BConsistency
Situational
26· DRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
3· F3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.274
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.086
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.307
Defensive EPA/play
-0.140
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.6%
Def Success Rate
42.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.167
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.107
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.13

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.87
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-1.25
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#114
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#111
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 42 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Southern Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
0th
Opp-adjusted defense
87th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
4th
Explosiveness
11th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
3th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Michigan2022OA -0.132 / +0.026similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, offensive success rate4372Central Michigan2018OA -0.237 / +0.049similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate4213Houston2024OA -0.071 / +0.033similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense3724South Carolina2025OA -0.037 / +0.088similar: offensive success rate, run defense, rushing offense3625Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, passing offense351

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ South Alabama7-31L+1.0L56.5U
2vs Grambling State37-0W-23.5W47.75U
3vs Troy9-21L+6.5L26.75O
4@ Alabama14-63L+45.0L58O
5@ Rice19-24L+1.5L44.5U
6vs UTEP13-26L+2.0L44.5U
7vs UAB0-34L+16.0L43U
9@ Middle Tennessee10-35L+13.5L48U
10vs North Texas14-38L+4.5L47.75O
11@ UTSA17-27L+16.0W50O
12@ Louisiana Tech35-19W----
13vs Florida International37-17W-10.5W46.25O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS2-8
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off5thRush Off2thRed Zone Off27th3rd Down Off3thPass Def99thRush Def74thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def94th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2721th-0.15896th
Red Zone-0.14427th-0.36396th
Third Down-0.3183th-0.23294th
No Garbage Time-0.2832th-0.14593th
First Half-0.16510th-0.07871th
Second Half-0.3800th-0.24398th
Early Downs-0.2582th-0.08877th
Passing Downs-0.2505th-0.29499th
Standard Downs-0.2862th-0.07874th
Goal to Go-0.34110th-0.41989th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.2%Rush 61.8%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
18.6%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
11.3
Yards/Game
266.3
Pts/Drive
1.13
3rd Down%
29.3%
3&Out%
30.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Southern Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouthern MissOpponents
Scoring
Points212335
Points / Game17.727.9
First Downs
Total192197
Rushing9583
Passing7499
Penalty2315
Rushing
Attempts465431
Yards1,4491,868
Yards / Carry3.14.3
Yards / Game120.8155.7
Touchdowns815
Passing
Attempts287312
Completions160189
Completion %55.7%60.6%
Yards1,7462,425
Yards / Attempt6.17.8
Touchdowns1416
Interceptions1711
Passer Rating111.10135.74
Total Offense
Plays752743
Yards3,1954,293
Yards / Play4.25.8
Yards / Game266.3357.8
Punt Returns
Returns2114
Yards225164
Average10.711.7
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns3117
Yards722428
Average23.325.2
Touchdowns12
Punting
Punts7363
Yards3,0982,604
Average42.441.3
Interception Returns
Returns1117
Yards137274
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles2015
Lost1412
Penalties
Penalties9783
Yards750745
Yards / Game62.562.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4029:20
Third Downs
Attempts164166
Conversions4863
Conversion %29.3%38.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1614
Conversions76
Conversion %43.8%42.9%
Red Zone
Trips2737
Scores (TD + FG)1926
Score %70.4%70.3%
Touchdowns1419
TD %51.9%51.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1418
Made813
Pct57.1%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2642
Made2442
Pct92.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →