Fourth Down Data
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HOU

Houston

CougarsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference4-8#90 (-2.69)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
7· FRating
1· FPer play
4· FConsistency
3· FBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
75· BPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
0· FRed-zone O
41· CRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.071
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.033
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.228
Defensive EPA/play
-0.077
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.2%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.151
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.082
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.09

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#90
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#119
model 29 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
recruiting 32 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
2th
Opp-adjusted defense
79th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
75th
Offensive success rate
4th
Explosiveness
3th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1California2018OA -0.154 / +0.144similar: turnover rate, passing offense, run defense4412Texas State2018OA -0.180 / +0.024similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense4053Rutgers2022OA -0.152 / +0.067similar: pass defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3944Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate3795Southern Miss2021OA -0.274 / +0.086similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense372

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UNLV7-27L-2.5L54.5U
2@ Oklahoma12-16L+27.5W53U
3vs Rice33-7W-4.5W44.5U
4@ Cincinnati0-34L+3.5L47.5U
5vs Iowa State0-20L+14.5L43.5U
6@ TCU30-19W----
8@ Kansas14-42L+6.5L46.5O
9vs Utah17-14W+3.5W37U
10vs Kansas State24-19W+13.0W46U
12@ Arizona3-27L----
13vs Baylor10-20L+7.5L50.5U
14@ BYU18-30L+13.0W41O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
2-10
16.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off0thRush Off10thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off4thPass Def78thRush Def78thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def96th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2090th-0.08882th
Red Zone-0.5720th+0.04241th
Third Down-0.2354th-0.20496th
No Garbage Time-0.2201th-0.08277th
First Half-0.1687th-0.02654th
Second Half-0.2480th-0.15897th
Early Downs-0.04831th-0.07569th
Passing Downs-0.3860th-0.10378th
Standard Downs-0.09810th-0.07978th
Goal to Go-0.7800th+0.12426th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.4%Rush 60.6%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
10.5
Yards/Game
288.1
Pts/Drive
1.09
3rd Down%
27.9%
3&Out%
21.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatHoustonOpponents
Scoring
Points168275
Points / Game14.022.9
First Downs
Total181214
Rushing8890
Passing77103
Penalty1621
Rushing
Attempts430416
Yards1,6251,631
Yards / Carry3.83.9
Yards / Game135.4135.9
Touchdowns914
Passing
Attempts280333
Completions182199
Completion %65.0%59.8%
Yards1,8322,266
Yards / Attempt6.56.8
Touchdowns918
Interceptions1712
Passer Rating118.42127.55
Total Offense
Plays710749
Yards3,4573,897
Yards / Play4.95.2
Yards / Game288.1324.8
Punt Returns
Returns1916
Yards13256
Average6.93.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2219
Yards463406
Average21.021.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5758
Yards2,3892,430
Average41.941.9
Interception Returns
Returns1217
Yards137107
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2121
Lost107
Penalties
Penalties6654
Yards623507
Yards / Game51.942.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5529:50
Third Downs
Attempts154158
Conversions4358
Conversion %27.9%36.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2915
Conversions1111
Conversion %37.9%73.3%
Red Zone
Trips2535
Scores (TD + FG)1529
Score %60.0%82.9%
Touchdowns822
TD %32.0%62.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1419
Made1013
Pct71.4%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1732
Made1630
Pct94.1%93.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →