Fourth Down Data
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CAL

California

Golden BearsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#62 (+1.00)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

53· COverall
Offense
8· FRating
5· FPer play
30· DConsistency
5· FBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
91· A-Per play
80· BConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.154
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.144
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.188
Defensive EPA/play
-0.165
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.9%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.023
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.128
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.36

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#62
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 27 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
5th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
5th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
5th
Defensive havoc
62th
Points per drive
6th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Houston2024OA -0.071 / +0.033similar: turnover rate, passing offense, run defense4402Fresno State2025OA -0.086 / +0.081similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4133TCU2018OA -0.079 / +0.129similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3944Western Michigan2022OA -0.132 / +0.026similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3905Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA385

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Carolina24-17W--38.5U
2@ BYU21-18W+2.5W47.5U
3vs Idaho State45-23W-36.5L58.5O
5vs Oregon24-42L+2.0L58.5O
6@ Arizona17-24L-2.5L54.5U
7vs UCLA7-37L-6.5L53.5U
8@ Oregon State49-7W-8.5W58U
9vs Washington12-10W+12.0W46U
10@ Washington State13-19L+7.0W51U
11@ USC15-14W+5.5W45.5U
13vs Colorado33-21W-10.5W44.5O
14vs Stanford13-23L+3.0L46.5U
18@ TCU7-10L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off3thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off30thPass Def95thRush Def79thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1823th-0.14192th
Red Zone-0.2984th+0.12127th
Third Down-0.03930th-0.41098th
No Garbage Time-0.1875th-0.16993th
First Half-0.16510th-0.17693th
Second Half-0.1982th-0.10384th
Early Downs-0.2382th-0.06467th
Passing Downs-0.15811th-0.24995th
Standard Downs-0.1953th-0.08079th
Goal to Go+0.04545th+0.05755th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.5%Rush 53.5%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
343.5
Pts/Drive
1.36
3rd Down%
35.4%
3&Out%
23.9%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCaliforniaOpponents
Scoring
Points280265
Points / Game21.520.4
First Downs
Total251227
Rushing111106
Passing113103
Penalty2718
Rushing
Attempts487511
Yards2,0451,847
Yards / Carry4.23.6
Yards / Game157.3142.1
Touchdowns1313
Passing
Attempts423387
Completions254223
Completion %60.0%57.6%
Yards2,4212,276
Yards / Attempt5.75.9
Touchdowns1613
Interceptions2021
Passer Rating111.15107.26
Total Offense
Plays910898
Yards4,4664,123
Yards / Play4.94.6
Yards / Game343.5317.2
Punt Returns
Returns2723
Yards167206
Average6.29.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3523
Yards811510
Average23.222.2
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7274
Yards2,9853,125
Average41.542.2
Interception Returns
Returns2120
Yards301460
Touchdowns53
Fumbles
Fumbles2117
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties7480
Yards651710
Yards / Game50.154.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1929:41
Third Downs
Attempts192199
Conversions6869
Conversion %35.4%34.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2722
Conversions1712
Conversion %63.0%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips3933
Scores (TD + FG)2830
Score %71.8%90.9%
Touchdowns1919
TD %48.7%57.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1718
Made1214
Pct70.6%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3231
Made3229
Pct100.0%93.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →