Fourth Down Data
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TCU

TCU

Horned FrogsBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#76 (-0.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
16· DRating
16· DPer play
32· DConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
85· BPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
3· F3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.079
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.129
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.104
Defensive EPA/play
-0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.004
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.079
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.80
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.55
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#76
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#29
recruiting 47 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
21th
Opp-adjusted defense
88th
Offensive EPA/play
16th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
30th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
14th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: pass defense, turnover rate, offensive success rate4162California2018OA -0.154 / +0.144similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense3963Utah2024OA -0.058 / +0.063similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3914Buffalo2025OA -0.180 / -0.001similar: havoc rate, pass defense, run defense3905Northern Illinois2024OA -0.015 / +0.050similar: run defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA387

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southern55-7W--38.5U
2@ SMU42-12W-23.5W59.5U
3vs Ohio State28-40L+13.0W58.5O
4@ Texas16-31L-3.0L50U
5vs Iowa State17-14W-11.0L44.5U
7vs Texas Tech14-17L-7.5L57.5U
8vs Oklahoma27-52L+8.5L61O
9@ Kansas26-27L-13.0L46.5O
10vs Kansas State14-13W-10.0L44.5U
11@ West Virginia10-47L+13.0L55.5O
12@ Baylor16-9W--50.5U
13vs Oklahoma State31-24W+6.0W52.5O
18vs California10-7W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-7
30.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off5thRush Off25thRed Zone Off11th3rd Down Off3thPass Def83thRush Def75thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def85th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11114th-0.09984th
Red Zone-0.22311th-0.13176th
Third Down-0.2893th-0.13585th
No Garbage Time-0.10515th-0.09381th
First Half-0.08821th-0.14888th
Second Half-0.1376th-0.05273th
Early Downs-0.07120th-0.06065th
Passing Downs-0.2155th-0.14983th
Standard Downs-0.05525th-0.06875th
Goal to Go-0.5232th+0.09948th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.4%Rush 54.6%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
20.4%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
367.6
Pts/Drive
1.55
3rd Down%
36.8%
3&Out%
17.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTCUOpponents
Scoring
Points306300
Points / Game23.523.1
First Downs
Total246242
Rushing114110
Passing119116
Penalty1316
Rushing
Attempts494499
Yards2,0301,802
Yards / Carry4.13.6
Yards / Game156.2138.6
Touchdowns1419
Passing
Attempts410407
Completions239226
Completion %58.3%55.5%
Yards2,7492,595
Yards / Attempt6.76.4
Touchdowns1817
Interceptions1512
Passer Rating121.78116.97
Total Offense
Plays904906
Yards4,7794,397
Yards / Play5.34.9
Yards / Game367.6338.2
Punt Returns
Returns1914
Yards35268
Average18.54.9
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3431
Yards712588
Average20.919.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7283
Yards2,6953,374
Average37.440.7
Interception Returns
Returns1215
Yards195142
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2914
Lost119
Penalties
Penalties5673
Yards508575
Yards / Game39.144.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5929:01
Third Downs
Attempts193184
Conversions7158
Conversion %36.8%31.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1625
Conversions612
Conversion %37.5%48.0%
Red Zone
Trips3438
Scores (TD + FG)2630
Score %76.5%78.9%
Touchdowns1621
TD %47.1%55.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2114
Made1311
Pct61.9%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3837
Made3735
Pct97.4%94.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →