Fourth Down Data
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ECU

East Carolina

PiratesBalanced
American Conference0-1#122 (-7.48)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

12· FOverall
Offense
47· CRating
25· DPer play
32· DConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
2· FRating
4· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.051
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.094
Defensive EPA/play
+0.332
lower = better
Off Success Rate
34.1%
Def Success Rate
54.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.426
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
47th
Opp-adjusted defense
15th
Offensive EPA/play
25th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
6th
Explosiveness
22th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2019OA -0.151 / -0.176similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4112Florida International2021OA -0.073 / -0.185similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, turnover rate4113Florida International2022OA -0.160 / -0.147similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3954Florida International2023OA -0.096 / -0.084similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, rushing offense3925Stanford2021OA -0.048 / -0.069similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate382

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Alabama10-48L+28.0L52.5O
2vs App State------
3@ Old Dominion------
4vs North Carolina Central------
6vs Rice------
7@ UAB------
8@ Memphis------
9vs Temple------
10vs South Florida------
11@ Charlotte------
12@ Army------
13vs Florida Atlantic------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off4thRush Off64thRed Zone Off35th3rd Down Off1thPass Def19thRush Def42thRed Zone Def37th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2269th+0.06426th
Red Zone-0.12335th+0.14837th
Third Down-1.1721th+0.7467th
No Garbage Time-0.08826th+0.3324th
First Half-0.08833th+0.3327th
Second Half-0.3237th-0.27177th
Early Downs+0.20580th-0.08148th
Passing Downs-0.5954th+0.33619th
Standard Downs+0.09364th-0.05042th
Goal to Go+0.65778th-0.10768th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.3%Rush 53.7%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
9.5%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
3.0
Yards/Game
162.0
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
0.0%
3&Out%
40.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEast CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points1048
Points / Game10.048.0
First Downs
Total528
Rushing115
Passing49
Penalty04
Rushing
Attempts2249
Yards2227
Yards / Carry0.14.6
Yards / Game2.0227.0
Touchdowns05
Passing
Attempts1932
Completions1119
Completion %57.9%59.4%
Yards160260
Yards / Attempt8.48.1
Touchdowns10
Interceptions10
Passer Rating135.47127.63
Total Offense
Plays4181
Yards162487
Yards / Play4.06.0
Yards / Game162.0487.0
Punt Returns
Returns13
Yards027
Average0.09.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns02
Yards039
Average—19.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts82
Yards377104
Average47.152.0
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards027
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles22
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties76
Yards6129
Yards / Game61.029.0
Time of Possession
Per Game21:0738:53
Third Downs
Attempts915
Conversions08
Conversion %0.0%53.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts01
Conversions01
Conversion %—100.0%
Red Zone
Trips26
Scores (TD + FG)26
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns15
TD %50.0%83.3%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made12
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts16
Made16
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →