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MIZ
Missouri
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference6-6#68 (-1.33)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
50· COverall
Offense
22· DRating
30· DPer play
53· CConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
75· BPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
91· A-Red-zone D
21· D3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.066
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.052
Defensive EPA/play
-0.089
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
40.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.038
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.023
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.96
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 22 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense21th
Opp-adjusted defense75th
Offensive EPA/play31th
Defensive EPA/play75th
Offensive success rate46th
Explosiveness25th
Defensive havoc55th
Points per drive37th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA4122Texas A&M2021OA -0.092 / +0.152similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3863Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3824Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3805Pittsburgh2019OA -0.088 / +0.099similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA378
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Wyoming | 31-37 | L | -16.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 2 | vs West Virginia | 38-7 | W | -13.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Southeast Missouri State | 50-0 | W | -34.0 | W | 68.5 | U |
| 4 | vs South Carolina | 34-14 | W | -9.5 | W | 61 | U |
| 6 | vs Troy | 42-10 | W | -25.5 | W | 65 | U |
| 7 | vs Ole Miss | 38-27 | W | -12.0 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Vanderbilt | 14-21 | L | -21.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Kentucky | 7-29 | L | -10.0 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Georgia | 0-27 | L | +19.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 12 | vs Florida | 6-23 | L | +7.0 | L | 51 | U |
| 13 | vs Tennessee | 20-24 | L | -3.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 14 | @ Arkansas | 24-14 | W | -16.5 | L | 53 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
2-10
16.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.080 | 22th | -0.110 | 88th |
| Red Zone | -0.222 | 16th | -0.302 | 92th |
| Third Down | -0.125 | 21th | -0.149 | 85th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.052 | 30th | -0.106 | 82th |
| First Half | -0.070 | 23th | -0.148 | 90th |
| Second Half | -0.093 | 22th | -0.068 | 79th |
| Early Downs | -0.051 | 28th | -0.080 | 80th |
| Passing Downs | -0.098 | 26th | -0.054 | 66th |
| Standard Downs | -0.071 | 20th | -0.147 | 94th |
| Goal to Go | -0.408 | 5th | -0.699 | 96th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.1%Rush 55.9%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
374.3
Pts/Drive
1.96
3rd Down%
36.5%
3&Out%
25.2%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Missouri | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 304 | 233 |
| Points / Game | 25.3 | 19.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 245 | 195 |
| Rushing | 110 | 76 |
| Passing | 109 | 91 |
| Penalty | 26 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 476 | 423 |
| Yards | 1,820 | 1,593 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 151.7 | 132.8 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 376 | 348 |
| Completions | 226 | 175 |
| Completion % | 60.1% | 50.3% |
| Yards | 2,671 | 2,151 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 130.44 | 111.83 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 852 | 771 |
| Yards | 4,491 | 3,744 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 374.3 | 312.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 23 |
| Yards | 223 | 226 |
| Average | 11.2 | 9.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 6 |
| Yards | 161 | 132 |
| Average | 17.9 | 22.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 79 |
| Yards | 2,940 | 3,459 |
| Average | 43.2 | 43.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 8 |
| Yards | 266 | 114 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 11 |
| Lost | 6 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 69 |
| Yards | 808 | 627 |
| Yards / Game | 67.3 | 52.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:54 | 30:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 181 | 181 |
| Conversions | 66 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 36.5% | 33.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 14 |
| Conversions | 7 | 5 |
| Conversion % | 53.8% | 35.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 46 | 31 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 34 | 25 |
| Score % | 73.9% | 80.6% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 16 |
| TD % | 52.2% | 51.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 19 |
| Made | 16 | 13 |
| Pct | 69.6% | 68.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 27 |
| Made | 34 | 24 |
| Pct | 91.9% | 88.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.