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TA&M
Texas A&M
AggiesBalancedSoutheastern Conference8-4#13 (+8.33)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
90· A-Overall
Offense
36· DRating
22· DPer play
44· CConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
97· A+Rating
93· APer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
9· FRed-zone O
88· BRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.092
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.152
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.086
Defensive EPA/play
-0.149
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
42.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.080
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.06
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.77
own return game
Return Defense
-0.29
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 13 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#8
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#8
recruiting 5 spots higher
53 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Texas A&M ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense17th
Opp-adjusted defense95th
Offensive EPA/play23th
Defensive EPA/play94th
Offensive success rate48th
Explosiveness20th
Defensive havoc86th
Points per drive45th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: pass defense, rushing offense, offensive success rate4072Duke2017OA -0.014 / +0.122similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive success rate3893Missouri2019OA -0.070 / +0.066similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, pass defense3864San Diego State2025OA -0.102 / +0.118similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3795Georgia Southern2020OA +0.003 / +0.038similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, rushing offense368
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Kent State | 41-10 | W | -28.5 | W | 67 | U |
| 2 | @ Colorado | 10-7 | W | -16.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 3 | vs New Mexico | 34-0 | W | -30.0 | W | 50 | U |
| 4 | @ Arkansas | 10-20 | L | -7.5 | L | - | - |
| 5 | vs Mississippi State | 22-26 | L | -7.0 | L | 46 | O |
| 6 | vs Alabama | 41-38 | W | +18.0 | W | 51 | O |
| 7 | @ Missouri | 35-14 | W | -9.0 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 8 | vs South Carolina | 44-14 | W | -20.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 10 | vs Auburn | 20-3 | W | -4.5 | W | 49.25 | U |
| 11 | @ Ole Miss | 19-29 | L | -2.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Prairie View A&M | 52-3 | W | -55.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 13 | @ LSU | 24-27 | L | -6.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS5-6
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.078 | 22th | -0.137 | 92th |
| Red Zone | -0.285 | 9th | -0.217 | 89th |
| Third Down | -0.220 | 6th | +0.020 | 65th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.080 | 22th | -0.153 | 95th |
| First Half | -0.055 | 32th | -0.137 | 89th |
| Second Half | -0.102 | 15th | -0.136 | 89th |
| Early Downs | -0.040 | 35th | -0.112 | 88th |
| Passing Downs | -0.119 | 21th | -0.167 | 84th |
| Standard Downs | -0.058 | 26th | -0.119 | 89th |
| Goal to Go | -0.136 | 34th | -0.512 | 92th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.0%Rush 53.0%
Havoc/Game
15.7
Havoc Rate
21.8%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
391.6
Pts/Drive
2.06
3rd Down%
38.1%
3&Out%
20.6%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Texas A&M vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas A&M | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 352 | 191 |
| Points / Game | 29.3 | 15.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 251 | 229 |
| Rushing | 116 | 98 |
| Passing | 119 | 108 |
| Penalty | 16 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 418 | 443 |
| Yards | 2,196 | 1,618 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 183.0 | 134.8 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 6 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 370 | 401 |
| Completions | 208 | 232 |
| Completion % | 56.2% | 57.9% |
| Yards | 2,503 | 2,312 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 122.96 | 112.00 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 788 | 844 |
| Yards | 4,699 | 3,930 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 391.6 | 327.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 20 |
| Yards | 320 | 122 |
| Average | 10.7 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 13 |
| Yards | 336 | 275 |
| Average | 30.5 | 21.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 79 |
| Yards | 2,377 | 3,282 |
| Average | 45.7 | 41.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 13 |
| Yards | 115 | 179 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 15 |
| Lost | 3 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 76 | 71 |
| Yards | 656 | 563 |
| Yards / Game | 54.7 | 46.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:14 | 29:45 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 155 | 185 |
| Conversions | 59 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 38.1% | 33.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 17 |
| Conversions | 6 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 35.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 43 | 31 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 22 |
| Score % | 88.4% | 71.0% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 12 |
| TD % | 51.2% | 38.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 19 |
| Made | 22 | 13 |
| Pct | 78.6% | 68.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 38 | 20 |
| Made | 38 | 20 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.