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Boise State
BroncosRun-HeavyPac-12 Conference10-4#54 (+2.25)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
60· COverall
Offense
54· CRating
46· CPer play
43· CConsistency
60· CBig plays
Defense
80· BRating
89· BPer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.051
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.066
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.020
Defensive EPA/play
-0.137
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
40.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.116
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-1.35
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#54
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#11
market 43 higher
Recruiting Rank
#60
model 6 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense35th
Opp-adjusted defense76th
Offensive EPA/play47th
Defensive EPA/play90th
Offensive success rate45th
Explosiveness61th
Defensive havoc72th
Points per drive59th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas A&M2021OA -0.092 / +0.152similar: pass defense, rushing offense, offensive success rate4072Fresno State2017OA -0.037 / +0.068similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive EPA4003Wyoming2020OA -0.019 / +0.052similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, havoc rate3924Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3895Iowa2020OA -0.010 / +0.063similar: pass defense, turnover rate, defensive success rate386
2022 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Oregon State | 17-34 | L | +2.5 | L | 57 | U |
| 2 | @ New Mexico | 31-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs UT Martin | 30-7 | W | -21.0 | W | 50 | U |
| 4 | @ UTEP | 10-27 | L | -6.5 | W | 39 | O |
| 5 | vs San Diego State | 35-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Fresno State | 40-20 | W | -7.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Air Force | 19-14 | W | +3.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Colorado State | 49-10 | W | -27.0 | W | 43 | O |
| 10 | vs BYU | 28-31 | L | -7.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Nevada | 41-3 | W | -20.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Wyoming | 20-17 | W | -16.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 13 | vs Utah State | 42-23 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | vs Fresno State | 16-28 | L | -3.0 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 16 | vs North Texas | 35-32 | W | -10.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6-1
53.8%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.028 | 47th | -0.156 | 94th |
| Red Zone | -0.063 | 34th | -0.145 | 70th |
| Third Down | -0.135 | 16th | -0.088 | 79th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.018 | 48th | -0.141 | 91th |
| First Half | -0.167 | 11th | -0.167 | 90th |
| Second Half | +0.109 | 87th | -0.144 | 90th |
| Early Downs | -0.045 | 40th | -0.153 | 92th |
| Passing Downs | -0.097 | 30th | -0.241 | 94th |
| Standard Downs | +0.005 | 56th | -0.102 | 79th |
| Goal to Go | -0.230 | 21th | -0.162 | 65th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.1%Rush 58.9%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
386.9
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
23.1%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 14 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Boise State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 413 | 273 |
| Points / Game | 29.5 | 19.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 274 | 204 |
| Rushing | 140 | 102 |
| Passing | 121 | 89 |
| Penalty | 13 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 551 | 499 |
| Yards | 2,749 | 1,744 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 196.4 | 124.6 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 385 | 362 |
| Completions | 229 | 187 |
| Completion % | 59.5% | 51.7% |
| Yards | 2,668 | 2,348 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 130.16 | 109.70 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 936 | 861 |
| Yards | 5,417 | 4,092 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 386.9 | 292.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 12 |
| Yards | 187 | 201 |
| Average | 6.9 | 16.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 42 |
| Yards | 518 | 886 |
| Average | 22.5 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 66 | 84 |
| Yards | 2,702 | 3,627 |
| Average | 40.9 | 43.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 9 |
| Yards | 186 | 94 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 18 |
| Lost | 8 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 78 | 79 |
| Yards | 669 | 561 |
| Yards / Game | 47.8 | 40.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:01 | 28:55 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 191 | 200 |
| Conversions | 76 | 63 |
| Conversion % | 39.8% | 31.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 23 |
| Conversions | 10 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 58.8% | 47.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 59 | 35 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 51 | 28 |
| Score % | 86.4% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 16 |
| TD % | 59.3% | 45.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 19 |
| Made | 23 | 14 |
| Pct | 85.2% | 73.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 31 |
| Made | 48 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.