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WIS
Wisconsin
BadgersRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference7-6#43 (+2.91)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
68· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
37· DPer play
38· DConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
87· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
59· CRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
20· D3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.093
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.062
Defensive EPA/play
-0.132
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
41.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.03
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.34
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#43
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#20
market 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 20 spots higher
20 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense43th
Opp-adjusted defense85th
Offensive EPA/play38th
Defensive EPA/play88th
Offensive success rate40th
Explosiveness16th
Defensive havoc79th
Points per drive43th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wyoming2019OA -0.056 / +0.057similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, passing offense4562Jacksonville State2023OA -0.052 / +0.090similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, turnover rate4083Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: passing offense, havoc rate, defensive EPA3994Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3895UAB2020OA -0.016 / +0.042similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate384
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Illinois State | 38-0 | W | -37.0 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Washington State | 14-17 | L | -11.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 3 | vs New Mexico State | 66-7 | W | -37.5 | W | 46 | O |
| 4 | @ Ohio State | 21-52 | L | +19.0 | L | 57 | O |
| 5 | vs Illinois | 10-34 | L | -7.0 | L | 43.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Northwestern | 42-7 | W | -10.0 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Michigan State | 28-34 | L | -7.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Purdue | 35-24 | W | -2.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 10 | vs Maryland | 23-10 | W | -5.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Iowa | 10-24 | L | -1.5 | L | 35 | U |
| 12 | @ Nebraska | 15-14 | W | -13.0 | L | 39.25 | U |
| 13 | vs Minnesota | 16-23 | L | -3.0 | L | 36 | O |
| 18 | @ Oklahoma State | 24-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.042 | 41th | -0.106 | 83th |
| Red Zone | +0.048 | 59th | -0.084 | 59th |
| Third Down | -0.102 | 20th | -0.245 | 94th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.068 | 35th | -0.121 | 87th |
| First Half | -0.016 | 45th | -0.191 | 93th |
| Second Half | -0.072 | 33th | -0.024 | 51th |
| Early Downs | -0.002 | 56th | -0.065 | 70th |
| Passing Downs | -0.114 | 24th | -0.152 | 80th |
| Standard Downs | -0.006 | 52th | -0.079 | 69th |
| Goal to Go | +0.063 | 67th | +0.381 | 4th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.4%Rush 60.6%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
11.2
Yards/Game
363.6
Pts/Drive
2.03
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
26.9%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Wisconsin | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 342 | 263 |
| Points / Game | 26.3 | 20.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 234 | 207 |
| Rushing | 103 | 70 |
| Passing | 110 | 118 |
| Penalty | 21 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 501 | 443 |
| Yards | 2,337 | 1,290 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Yards / Game | 179.8 | 99.2 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 326 | 376 |
| Completions | 188 | 222 |
| Completion % | 57.7% | 59.0% |
| Yards | 2,390 | 2,656 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 133.76 | 125.13 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 827 | 819 |
| Yards | 4,727 | 3,946 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 363.6 | 303.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 20 |
| Yards | 132 | 181 |
| Average | 5.5 | 9.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 23 |
| Yards | 624 | 352 |
| Average | 23.1 | 15.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 74 |
| Yards | 2,769 | 3,127 |
| Average | 43.3 | 42.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 11 |
| Yards | 241 | 158 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 4 |
| Lost | 7 | 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 81 | 58 |
| Yards | 751 | 570 |
| Yards / Game | 57.8 | 43.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:08 | 28:48 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 180 |
| Conversions | 68 | 58 |
| Conversion % | 40.2% | 32.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 21 |
| Conversions | 7 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 46.7% | 52.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 44 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 32 |
| Score % | 81.8% | 78.0% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 24 |
| TD % | 63.6% | 58.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 15 |
| Made | 12 | 11 |
| Pct | 70.6% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 32 |
| Made | 42 | 32 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.