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CIN
Cincinnati
BearcatsRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference11-3#25 (+12.33)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
81· BOverall
Offense
66· CRating
48· CPer play
58· CConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
81· BPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
71· BRed-zone O
97· A+Red-zone D
57· C3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.099
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.003
Defensive EPA/play
-0.105
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
42.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.096
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.21
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.95
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.70
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#21
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 39 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense60th
Opp-adjusted defense85th
Offensive EPA/play49th
Defensive EPA/play82th
Offensive success rate54th
Explosiveness33th
Defensive havoc76th
Points per drive51th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, passing offense4352Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, pass defense4333Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive EPA4064Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: passing offense, havoc rate, defensive EPA3995UCF2026OA -0.004 / +0.046similar: havoc rate, run defense, turnover rate398
2019 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UCLA | 24-14 | W | -8.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 2 | @ Ohio State | 0-42 | L | +14.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 3 | vs Miami (OH) | 35-13 | W | -17.0 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Marshall | 52-14 | W | -4.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 6 | vs UCF | 27-24 | W | +3.5 | W | 64 | U |
| 7 | @ Houston | 38-23 | W | -10.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Tulsa | 24-13 | W | -16.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 10 | @ East Carolina | 46-43 | W | -24.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 11 | vs UConn | 48-3 | W | -34.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 12 | @ South Florida | 20-17 | W | -13.5 | L | 47 | U |
| 13 | vs Temple | 15-13 | W | -9.0 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Memphis | 24-34 | L | +14.0 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 15 | @ Memphis | 24-29 | L | +8.5 | W | 59 | U |
| 19 | vs Boston College | 38-6 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
3-10
23.1%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.012 | 40th | -0.103 | 85th |
| Red Zone | +0.095 | 72th | -0.408 | 98th |
| Third Down | +0.069 | 57th | -0.007 | 57th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.008 | 50th | -0.108 | 83th |
| First Half | -0.024 | 41th | -0.121 | 85th |
| Second Half | +0.001 | 47th | -0.084 | 82th |
| Early Downs | -0.012 | 42th | -0.094 | 84th |
| Passing Downs | -0.044 | 35th | -0.156 | 89th |
| Standard Downs | +0.005 | 51th | -0.071 | 77th |
| Goal to Go | -0.119 | 36th | -0.230 | 73th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.0%Rush 62.0%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
390.3
Pts/Drive
2.21
3rd Down%
43.4%
3&Out%
23.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 14 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 415 | 288 |
| Points / Game | 29.6 | 20.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 290 | 279 |
| Rushing | 159 | 114 |
| Passing | 110 | 127 |
| Penalty | 21 | 38 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 616 | 535 |
| Yards | 2,912 | 1,941 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 208.0 | 138.6 |
| Touchdowns | 30 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 377 | 452 |
| Completions | 208 | 233 |
| Completion % | 55.2% | 51.5% |
| Yards | 2,552 | 3,119 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 122.83 | 114.84 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 993 | 987 |
| Yards | 5,464 | 5,060 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 390.3 | 361.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 18 |
| Yards | 250 | 89 |
| Average | 8.3 | 4.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 52 |
| Yards | 590 | 1,059 |
| Average | 21.9 | 20.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 72 | 75 |
| Yards | 3,053 | 3,138 |
| Average | 42.4 | 41.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 11 |
| Yards | 300 | 154 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 24 |
| Lost | 9 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 123 | 93 |
| Yards | 977 | 757 |
| Yards / Game | 69.8 | 54.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:50 | 28:10 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 212 | 212 |
| Conversions | 92 | 81 |
| Conversion % | 43.4% | 38.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 19 |
| Conversions | 11 | 5 |
| Conversion % | 64.7% | 26.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 65 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 54 | 37 |
| Score % | 83.1% | 72.5% |
| Touchdowns | 43 | 22 |
| TD % | 66.2% | 43.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 24 |
| Made | 16 | 18 |
| Pct | 72.7% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 51 | 29 |
| Made | 51 | 28 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 5 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.