Fourth Down Data
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NU

Northwestern

WildcatsBalanced
Big Ten Conference10-3#32 (+9.67)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
57· CRating
30· DPer play
63· CConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
83· BRating
84· BPer play
88· BConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
82· BRed-zone D
31· D3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.113
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.073
Defensive EPA/play
-0.148
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
41.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.075
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.091
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#32
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#17
AP 15 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#44
model 12 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
85th
Offensive EPA/play
30th
Defensive EPA/play
85th
Offensive success rate
71th
Explosiveness
35th
Defensive havoc
88th
Points per drive
42th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate4552Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, passing offense4353Western Michigan2025OA -0.069 / +0.069similar: run defense, offensive success rate, pass defense4194Buffalo2019OA -0.058 / +0.150similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate4105Texas A&M2026OA -0.017 / +0.099similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA407

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Nevada31-20W-7.5L51.5U
2@ Duke17-41L-2.0L54O
3vs Bowling Green49-7W-21.0W56.5U
5@ Wisconsin24-33L+16.5W51O
6vs Penn State7-31L+14.5L51U
7@ Maryland37-21W-2.5W50.5O
8vs Iowa17-10W-3.0W46U
9vs Michigan State39-31W+1.5W41.5O
10@ Nebraska31-24W+1.0W55P
11vs Purdue23-13W-6.5W51U
12vs Minnesota39-0W-7.0W40.5U
13@ Illinois42-7W-16.5W46O
18vs Kentucky24-23W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off17thRush Off61thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off32thPass Def85thRush Def92thRed Zone Def83th3rd Down Def78th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05832th-0.16890th
Red Zone+0.19187th-0.16383th
Third Down-0.11732th-0.20478th
No Garbage Time-0.08826th-0.16788th
First Half-0.03145th-0.19189th
Second Half-0.08929th-0.14884th
Early Downs+0.01568th-0.18593th
Passing Downs-0.15117th-0.16785th
Standard Downs-0.01261th-0.16992th
Goal to Go-0.06143th+0.23014th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.2%Rush 53.8%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
22.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
408.0
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
35.5%
3&Out%
21.5%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthwesternOpponents
Scoring
Points380261
Points / Game29.220.1
First Downs
Total297249
Rushing12583
Passing150149
Penalty2217
Rushing
Attempts537431
Yards2,2641,400
Yards / Carry4.23.2
Yards / Game174.2107.7
Touchdowns3013
Passing
Attempts461495
Completions276283
Completion %59.9%57.2%
Yards3,0403,244
Yards / Attempt6.66.6
Touchdowns1718
Interceptions1217
Passer Rating122.23117.35
Total Offense
Plays998926
Yards5,3044,644
Yards / Play5.35.0
Yards / Game408.0357.2
Punt Returns
Returns1319
Yards94110
Average7.25.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2545
Yards479814
Average19.218.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6980
Yards2,9553,269
Average42.840.9
Interception Returns
Returns1712
Yards207139
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles819
Lost68
Penalties
Penalties6467
Yards637636
Yards / Game49.048.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5429:06
Third Downs
Attempts203202
Conversions7273
Conversion %35.5%36.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3922
Conversions228
Conversion %56.4%36.4%
Red Zone
Trips5941
Scores (TD + FG)5230
Score %88.1%73.2%
Touchdowns4123
TD %69.5%56.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1616
Made1310
Pct81.3%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4631
Made4531
Pct97.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →