Fourth Down Data
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PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsBalanced
Big Ten Conference9-4#21 (+7.15)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
59· CRating
46· CPer play
44· CConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
91· A-Rating
81· BPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
72· BRed-zone D
37· D3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.000
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.080
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.008
Defensive EPA/play
-0.098
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.089
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.023
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#17
AP 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#11
recruiting 10 spots higher
46 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
44th
Opp-adjusted defense
80th
Offensive EPA/play
47th
Defensive EPA/play
82th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
73th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA4372Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4033Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3804Jacksonville State2023OA -0.052 / +0.090similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3785Ohio2017OA +0.025 / -0.003similar: run defense, passing offense, rushing offense371

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs App State45-38W-4.5L47.5O
2@ Pittsburgh51-6W-7.5W51O
3vs Kent State63-10W-35.0W64.5O
4@ Illinois63-24W-26.5W61O
5vs Ohio State26-27L+3.0W68.5U
7vs Michigan State17-21L-13.5L53.5U
8@ Indiana33-28W-14.0L56.5O
9vs Iowa30-24W-5.5W52O
10@ Michigan7-42L+13.5L48O
11vs Wisconsin22-10W-7.5W52U
12@ Rutgers20-7W-28.5L52.5U
13vs Maryland38-3W-12.0W51.5U
19vs Kentucky24-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off44thRush Off76thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off37thPass Def70thRush Def89thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def79th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04064th-0.11187th
Red Zone+0.35798th-0.11273th
Third Down+0.01237th-0.09379th
No Garbage Time-0.01142th-0.10183th
First Half-0.03535th-0.19495th
Second Half+0.12489th-0.03664th
Early Downs+0.03267th-0.10185th
Passing Downs-0.01344th-0.08870th
Standard Downs+0.06776th-0.12589th
Goal to Go+0.23780th-0.14577th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
18.4
Havoc Rate
24.0%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
423.0
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
37.1%
3&Out%
20.7%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points439267
Points / Game33.820.5
First Downs
Total277260
Rushing133122
Passing116114
Penalty2824
Rushing
Attempts521549
Yards2,6642,197
Yards / Carry5.14.0
Yards / Game204.9169.0
Touchdowns3416
Passing
Attempts379416
Completions205223
Completion %54.1%53.6%
Yards2,8352,359
Yards / Attempt7.55.7
Touchdowns2114
Interceptions813
Passer Rating130.99106.10
Total Offense
Plays900965
Yards5,4994,556
Yards / Play6.14.7
Yards / Game423.0350.5
Punt Returns
Returns3323
Yards270197
Average8.28.6
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2630
Yards643640
Average24.721.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6689
Yards2,8443,667
Average43.141.2
Interception Returns
Returns138
Yards170152
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles2424
Lost137
Penalties
Penalties6197
Yards551874
Yards / Game42.467.2
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4132:19
Third Downs
Attempts175211
Conversions6571
Conversion %37.1%33.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1726
Conversions911
Conversion %52.9%42.3%
Red Zone
Trips5836
Scores (TD + FG)5227
Score %89.7%75.0%
Touchdowns4221
TD %72.4%58.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2416
Made169
Pct66.7%56.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5532
Made5332
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →