Fourth Down Data
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JXST

Jacksonville State

GamecocksRun-Heavy
Conference USA9-4#43 (+3.59)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

68· COverall
Offense
46· CRating
45· CPer play
61· CConsistency
43· CBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
92· A-Per play
84· BConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
14· F3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.090
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.004
Defensive EPA/play
-0.121
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
41.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.116
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.09

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.40
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#43
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#76
model 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Jacksonville State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
27th
Opp-adjusted defense
88th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
57th
Explosiveness
43th
Defensive havoc
80th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, turnover rate4082Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense4013Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3944Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: run defense, turnover rate, defensive EPA3895Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA381

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs UTEP17-14W+2.0W54U
1vs East Tennessee State49-3W----
2@ Coastal Carolina16-30L+13.5L61U
4vs Eastern Michigan21-0W-6.5W52.5U
5@ Sam Houston35-28W+3.0W52O
6@ Middle Tennessee45-30W+7.0L58.5U
7vs Liberty13-31L+7.5W60U
8vs Western Kentucky20-17W-8.0W46O
9@ Florida International41-16W----
10@ South Carolina28-38L+15.5W55O
12vs Louisiana Tech56-17W-8.5W54.5O
13@ New Mexico State17-20L-2.0L50U
16@ Louisiana34-31W-2.5W58.25O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-3-1
72.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off79thRed Zone Off52th3rd Down Off14thPass Def99thRush Def79thRed Zone Def85th3rd Down Def96th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01041th-0.13193th
Red Zone+0.00652th-0.17085th
Third Down-0.02714th-0.12796th
No Garbage Time-0.00146th-0.11892th
First Half+0.02855th-0.04373th
Second Half-0.04833th-0.235100th
Early Downs+0.02874th-0.08776th
Passing Downs-0.1598th-0.20899th
Standard Downs+0.06479th-0.08579th
Goal to Go-0.11825th-0.03856th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.1%Rush 64.9%
Havoc/Game
15.6
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
407.7
Pts/Drive
2.09
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
21.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Jacksonville State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatJacksonville StateOpponents
Scoring
Points392275
Points / Game30.221.2
First Downs
Total289242
Rushing16479
Passing102137
Penalty2326
Rushing
Attempts647520
Yards3,0771,450
Yards / Carry4.82.8
Yards / Game236.7111.5
Touchdowns3514
Passing
Attempts350431
Completions182252
Completion %52.0%58.5%
Yards2,2233,136
Yards / Attempt6.47.3
Touchdowns1215
Interceptions1216
Passer Rating109.81123.65
Total Offense
Plays997951
Yards5,3004,586
Yards / Play5.34.8
Yards / Game407.7352.8
Punt Returns
Returns1617
Yards8771
Average5.44.2
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns226
Yards31543
Average15.520.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6982
Yards2,8443,365
Average41.241.0
Interception Returns
Returns1612
Yards249232
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1817
Lost89
Penalties
Penalties6374
Yards564678
Yards / Game43.452.2
Time of Possession
Per Game26:4333:17
Third Downs
Attempts205205
Conversions7867
Conversion %38.0%32.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2729
Conversions1412
Conversion %51.9%41.4%
Red Zone
Trips5333
Scores (TD + FG)4428
Score %83.0%84.8%
Touchdowns3418
TD %64.2%54.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2216
Made1613
Pct72.7%81.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4733
Made4632
Pct97.9%97.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →