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OKST
Oklahoma State
CowboysRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference12-2#6 (+10.34)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
95· AOverall
Offense
47· CRating
39· DPer play
58· CConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
95· APer play
96· AConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
99· A+3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.195
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.024
Defensive EPA/play
-0.183
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.8%
Def Success Rate
39.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.159
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.029
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.01
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.91
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+1.25
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#7
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#33
model 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#41
model 35 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oklahoma State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense66th
Opp-adjusted defense98th
Offensive EPA/play39th
Defensive EPA/play96th
Offensive success rate65th
Explosiveness23th
Defensive havoc100th
Points per drive38th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Virginia Tech2017OA -0.009 / +0.191similar: run defense, passing offense, offensive success rate4852Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, run defense4193Utah2018OA +0.005 / +0.129similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4154Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, pass defense4035Toledo2022OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate401
2021 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Missouri State | 23-16 | W | -36.5 | L | - | - |
| 2 | vs Tulsa | 28-23 | W | -12.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Boise State | 21-20 | W | +5.5 | W | 57 | U |
| 4 | vs Kansas State | 31-20 | W | -5.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Baylor | 24-14 | W | -3.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Texas | 32-24 | W | +5.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Iowa State | 21-24 | L | +7.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Kansas | 55-3 | W | -30.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 10 | @ West Virginia | 24-3 | W | -3.0 | W | 49 | U |
| 11 | vs TCU | 63-17 | W | -13.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Texas Tech | 23-0 | W | -10.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Oklahoma | 37-33 | W | -3.8 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Baylor | 16-21 | L | -5.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 18 | @ Notre Dame | 37-35 | W | +2.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
11-3
78.6%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS6-0
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.008 | 44th | -0.182 | 97th |
| Red Zone | -0.031 | 51th | -0.102 | 63th |
| Third Down | +0.104 | 55th | -0.353 | 100th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.012 | 44th | -0.184 | 97th |
| First Half | +0.043 | 60th | -0.159 | 92th |
| Second Half | -0.056 | 29th | -0.208 | 97th |
| Early Downs | -0.012 | 47th | -0.114 | 89th |
| Passing Downs | -0.042 | 41th | -0.192 | 89th |
| Standard Downs | +0.009 | 52th | -0.176 | 97th |
| Goal to Go | -0.166 | 30th | +0.217 | 18th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.9%Rush 58.1%
Havoc/Game
17.2
Havoc Rate
26.0%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
416.2
Pts/Drive
2.01
3rd Down%
43.3%
3&Out%
23.0%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 14 games — Oklahoma State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 435 | 253 |
| Points / Game | 31.1 | 18.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 331 | 219 |
| Rushing | 139 | 69 |
| Passing | 157 | 125 |
| Penalty | 35 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 620 | 453 |
| Yards | 2,589 | 1,227 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 2.7 |
| Yards / Game | 184.9 | 87.6 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 9 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 448 | 457 |
| Completions | 274 | 262 |
| Completion % | 61.2% | 57.3% |
| Yards | 3,238 | 2,943 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 133.01 | 119.76 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,068 | 910 |
| Yards | 5,827 | 4,170 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 416.2 | 297.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 20 |
| Yards | 68 | 16 |
| Average | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 39 |
| Yards | 608 | 808 |
| Average | 29.0 | 20.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 72 | 98 |
| Yards | 3,056 | 4,521 |
| Average | 42.4 | 46.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 13 |
| Yards | 159 | 142 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 22 |
| Lost | 8 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 84 | 92 |
| Yards | 771 | 727 |
| Yards / Game | 55.1 | 51.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:52 | 29:06 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 217 | 206 |
| Conversions | 94 | 59 |
| Conversion % | 43.3% | 28.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 27 |
| Conversions | 7 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 53.8% | 29.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 68 | 32 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 59 | 28 |
| Score % | 86.8% | 87.5% |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 18 |
| TD % | 60.3% | 56.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 19 |
| Made | 20 | 14 |
| Pct | 74.1% | 73.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 52 | 29 |
| Made | 51 | 29 |
| Pct | 98.1% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.