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UTAH
Utah
UtesBalancedBig 12 Conference9-5#26 (+6.38)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
80· BOverall
Offense
55· CRating
34· DPer play
66· CConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
90· A-Per play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
14· F3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.129
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.025
Defensive EPA/play
-0.143
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
40.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.118
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.256
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.11
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#47
model 21 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Utah ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense48th
Opp-adjusted defense89th
Offensive EPA/play35th
Defensive EPA/play91th
Offensive success rate62th
Explosiveness23th
Defensive havoc91th
Points per drive44th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wyoming2020OA -0.019 / +0.052similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, run defense4382Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, passing offense4193Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4154Virginia Tech2017OA -0.009 / +0.191similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3945Nevada2018OA -0.075 / +0.074similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, rushing offense388
2018 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Weber State | 41-10 | W | -7.0 | L | 43 | O |
| 2 | @ Northern Illinois | 17-6 | W | -12.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Washington | 7-21 | L | +4.0 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Washington State | 24-28 | L | -1.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Stanford | 40-21 | W | +3.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 7 | vs Arizona | 42-10 | W | -13.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 8 | vs USC | 41-28 | W | -6.5 | W | 48 | O |
| 9 | @ UCLA | 41-10 | W | -10.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Arizona State | 20-38 | L | -7.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 11 | vs Oregon | 32-25 | W | -5.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 12 | @ Colorado | 30-7 | W | -7.0 | W | 47 | U |
| 13 | vs BYU | 35-27 | W | -10.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Washington | 3-10 | L | +4.5 | L | 45 | U |
| 18 | vs Northwestern | 20-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.042 | 27th | -0.149 | 93th |
| Red Zone | -0.018 | 40th | -0.397 | 98th |
| Third Down | -0.119 | 14th | -0.185 | 90th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.028 | 35th | -0.143 | 90th |
| First Half | +0.012 | 52th | -0.114 | 79th |
| Second Half | -0.099 | 14th | -0.186 | 98th |
| Early Downs | -0.014 | 49th | -0.166 | 99th |
| Passing Downs | -0.079 | 22th | -0.082 | 68th |
| Standard Downs | -0.026 | 39th | -0.193 | 98th |
| Goal to Go | -0.127 | 20th | +0.118 | 42th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.0%Rush 58.0%
Havoc/Game
16.4
Havoc Rate
23.2%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
395.8
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
37.7%
3&Out%
22.6%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 14 games — Utah vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Utah | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 393 | 272 |
| Points / Game | 28.1 | 19.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 284 | 238 |
| Rushing | 136 | 82 |
| Passing | 127 | 128 |
| Penalty | 21 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 563 | 487 |
| Yards | 2,520 | 1,404 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| Yards / Game | 180.0 | 100.3 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 408 | 469 |
| Completions | 251 | 272 |
| Completion % | 61.5% | 58.0% |
| Yards | 3,021 | 3,014 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 133.20 | 118.25 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 971 | 956 |
| Yards | 5,541 | 4,418 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 395.8 | 315.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 13 |
| Yards | 223 | 71 |
| Average | 7.4 | 5.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 22 |
| Yards | 295 | 460 |
| Average | 18.4 | 20.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 62 | 83 |
| Yards | 2,699 | 3,467 |
| Average | 43.5 | 41.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 12 |
| Yards | 259 | 187 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 15 |
| Lost | 14 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 71 | 64 |
| Yards | 656 | 616 |
| Yards / Game | 46.9 | 44.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:50 | 30:10 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 199 | 216 |
| Conversions | 75 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 37.7% | 33.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 31 |
| Conversions | 11 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 55.0% | 45.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 49 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 44 | 27 |
| Score % | 89.8% | 67.5% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 20 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 50.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 17 |
| Made | 26 | 9 |
| Pct | 83.9% | 52.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 34 |
| Made | 45 | 33 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.