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NEV
Nevada
Wolf PackBalancedMountain West Conference8-5#66 (+0.80)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
50· COverall
Offense
30· DRating
26· DPer play
27· DConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
73· BPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
76· BRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.075
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.074
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.052
Defensive EPA/play
-0.078
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.3%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.026
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.102
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#66
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Nevada ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense22th
Opp-adjusted defense78th
Offensive EPA/play27th
Defensive EPA/play73th
Offensive success rate32th
Explosiveness33th
Defensive havoc71th
Points per drive38th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Utah2018OA +0.005 / +0.129similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3882New Mexico State2017OA -0.037 / -0.019similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate3853Utah State2017OA -0.063 / +0.074similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3784Central Michigan2017OA -0.059 / +0.044similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3745Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense368
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Portland State | 72-19 | W | -1.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Vanderbilt | 10-41 | L | +10.0 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Oregon State | 37-35 | W | -4.0 | L | 67 | O |
| 4 | @ Toledo | 44-63 | L | +10.5 | L | 67.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Air Force | 28-25 | W | +3.5 | W | 64 | U |
| 6 | vs Fresno State | 3-21 | L | +15.0 | L | 59 | U |
| 7 | vs Boise State | 27-31 | L | +15.0 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Hawai'i | 40-22 | W | +3.0 | W | 67 | U |
| 9 | vs San Diego State | 28-24 | W | -1.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Colorado State | 49-10 | W | -14.0 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 12 | @ San José State | 21-12 | W | -14.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 13 | @ UNLV | 29-34 | L | -14.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Arkansas State | 16-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.045 | 24th | -0.082 | 80th |
| Red Zone | -0.102 | 24th | -0.137 | 77th |
| Third Down | -0.170 | 10th | -0.257 | 95th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.049 | 27th | -0.081 | 77th |
| First Half | -0.048 | 32th | -0.129 | 83th |
| Second Half | -0.042 | 30th | -0.036 | 64th |
| Early Downs | -0.041 | 34th | +0.002 | 42th |
| Passing Downs | -0.077 | 23th | -0.160 | 87th |
| Standard Downs | -0.028 | 36th | -0.035 | 59th |
| Goal to Go | -0.137 | 20th | +0.016 | 64th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.1%Rush 46.9%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
430.8
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
32.4%
3&Out%
24.4%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Nevada vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Nevada | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 404 | 350 |
| Points / Game | 31.1 | 26.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 272 | 256 |
| Rushing | 102 | 94 |
| Passing | 154 | 138 |
| Penalty | 16 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 436 | 510 |
| Yards | 1,976 | 1,846 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 152.0 | 142.0 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 493 | 449 |
| Completions | 295 | 266 |
| Completion % | 59.8% | 59.2% |
| Yards | 3,624 | 3,192 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 17 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 131.42 | 134.64 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 929 | 959 |
| Yards | 5,600 | 5,038 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 430.8 | 387.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 22 |
| Yards | 214 | 102 |
| Average | 12.6 | 4.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 29 |
| Yards | 293 | 647 |
| Average | 18.3 | 22.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 78 |
| Yards | 2,883 | 3,321 |
| Average | 42.4 | 42.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 17 |
| Yards | 141 | 342 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 17 |
| Lost | 11 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 77 | 83 |
| Yards | 738 | 702 |
| Yards / Game | 56.8 | 54.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:15 | 30:45 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 185 | 200 |
| Conversions | 60 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 32.4% | 30.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 33 |
| Conversions | 16 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 53.3% | 48.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 40 | 35 |
| Score % | 85.1% | 72.9% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 27 |
| TD % | 57.4% | 56.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 15 |
| Made | 15 | 9 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 60.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 42 |
| Made | 43 | 41 |
| Pct | 89.6% | 97.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.