Fourth Down Data
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CMU

Central Michigan

ChippewasBalanced
Mid-American Conference8-5#88 (-4.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
35· DRating
13· FPer play
11· FConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
78· BPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.059
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.132
Defensive EPA/play
-0.130
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.7%
Def Success Rate
41.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.002
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.005
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.73

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.08
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 13 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
24th
Opp-adjusted defense
64th
Offensive EPA/play
13th
Defensive EPA/play
79th
Offensive success rate
17th
Explosiveness
25th
Defensive havoc
55th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2021OA -0.066 / +0.065similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, rushing offense4122Nevada2018OA -0.075 / +0.074similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3743Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense3714Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA3655Utah State2017OA -0.063 / +0.074similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, run defense362

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Rhode Island30-27W+3.0L47O
2@ Kansas45-27W+3.0W57O
3@ Syracuse17-41L+7.5L66.5U
4vs Miami (OH)14-31L-1.5L51U
5@ Boston College8-28L+10.0L50.5U
6@ Ohio26-23W+10.5W54.5U
7vs Toledo10-30L+9.5L54.5U
8@ Ball State56-9W-3.5W48.5O
10@ Western Michigan35-28W+3.5W47.5O
11vs Eastern Michigan42-30W+1.5W51.5O
12@ Kent State42-23W-17.0W44.5O
13vs Northern Illinois31-24W+2.5W51.5O
17@ Wyoming14-37L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS5-3
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off41thRed Zone Off38th3rd Down Off2thPass Def84thRush Def83thRed Zone Def63th3rd Down Def84th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11418th-0.14785th
Red Zone-0.04938th-0.07863th
Third Down-0.4342th-0.25084th
No Garbage Time-0.13611th-0.13481th
First Half-0.10818th-0.07965th
Second Half-0.12121th-0.22498th
Early Downs-0.04347th-0.13886th
Passing Downs-0.2158th-0.16684th
Standard Downs-0.05841th-0.13883th
Goal to Go-0.08135th+0.07538th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.8%Rush 49.2%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
18.5%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
389.8
Pts/Drive
1.73
3rd Down%
30.4%
3&Out%
31.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCentral MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points370358
Points / Game28.527.5
First Downs
Total238249
Rushing81117
Passing128108
Penalty2924
Rushing
Attempts454557
Yards1,7432,408
Yards / Carry3.84.3
Yards / Game134.1185.2
Touchdowns1924
Passing
Attempts469402
Completions263220
Completion %56.1%54.7%
Yards3,3242,412
Yards / Attempt7.16.0
Touchdowns2716
Interceptions1719
Passer Rating127.36108.81
Total Offense
Plays923959
Yards5,0674,820
Yards / Play5.55.0
Yards / Game389.8370.8
Punt Returns
Returns2029
Yards109268
Average5.59.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4444
Yards934828
Average21.218.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts9080
Yards3,7973,253
Average42.240.7
Interception Returns
Returns1917
Yards172240
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2116
Lost1412
Penalties
Penalties8390
Yards804816
Yards / Game61.862.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3131:29
Third Downs
Attempts184209
Conversions5673
Conversion %30.4%34.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1819
Conversions109
Conversion %55.6%47.4%
Red Zone
Trips4351
Scores (TD + FG)3438
Score %79.1%74.5%
Touchdowns2726
TD %62.8%51.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1125
Made717
Pct63.6%68.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4642
Made4541
Pct97.8%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →