Fourth Down Data
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MSST

Mississippi State

BulldogsPass-Heavy
Southeastern Conference4-7#78 (-1.68)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

39· DOverall
Offense
9· FRating
9· FPer play
27· DConsistency
5· FBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
75· BPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.062
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.149
Defensive EPA/play
-0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.2%
Def Success Rate
45.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.096
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#78
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#83
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#16
recruiting 62 spots higher
17 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
3th
Opp-adjusted defense
88th
Offensive EPA/play
9th
Defensive EPA/play
76th
Offensive success rate
26th
Explosiveness
5th
Defensive havoc
43th
Points per drive
15th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate4472Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, offensive success rate4393Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive success rate4154Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4105California2018OA -0.154 / +0.144similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA385

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4@ LSU44-34W+16.5W57O
5vs Arkansas14-21L-17.0L68.5U
6@ Kentucky2-24L+2.0L57.5U
7vs Texas A&M14-28L+6.5L54.5U
9@ Alabama0-41L+30.8L63.5U
10vs Vanderbilt24-17W-19.0L45.75U
12@ Georgia24-31L+25.0W44.5O
13@ Ole Miss24-31L+9.5W69U
15vs Auburn10-24L+6.5L50U
16vs Missouri51-32W+1.0W49.5O
18vs Tulsa28-26W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
4-7
36.4%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off21thRush Off2thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off20thPass Def69thRush Def72thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1695th-0.04974th
Red Zone-0.4304th-0.14080th
Third Down-0.12820th-0.04472th
No Garbage Time-0.1649th-0.05877th
First Half-0.14911th-0.03468th
Second Half-0.1905th-0.06475th
Early Downs-0.2013th-0.04070th
Passing Downs-0.09221th-0.04769th
Standard Downs-0.2092th-0.05072th
Goal to Go-0.8122th-0.50495th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 73.2%Rush 26.8%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
340.2
Pts/Drive
1.59
3rd Down%
32.5%
3&Out%
26.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMississippi StateOpponents
Scoring
Points235309
Points / Game21.428.1
First Downs
Total208235
Rushing4190
Passing150125
Penalty1720
Rushing
Attempts204391
Yards4831,390
Yards / Carry2.43.6
Yards / Game43.9126.4
Touchdowns811
Passing
Attempts557389
Completions373240
Completion %67.0%61.7%
Yards3,2592,897
Yards / Attempt5.97.4
Touchdowns1723
Interceptions1811
Passer Rating119.72138.11
Total Offense
Plays761780
Yards3,7424,287
Yards / Play4.95.5
Yards / Game340.2389.7
Punt Returns
Returns1018
Yards69104
Average6.95.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns148
Yards393171
Average28.121.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6052
Yards2,5042,232
Average41.742.9
Interception Returns
Returns1118
Yards281283
Touchdowns34
Fumbles
Fumbles712
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties7274
Yards661636
Yards / Game60.157.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5829:02
Third Downs
Attempts157161
Conversions5166
Conversion %32.5%41.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2121
Conversions129
Conversion %57.1%42.9%
Red Zone
Trips3340
Scores (TD + FG)2532
Score %75.8%80.0%
Touchdowns1822
TD %54.5%55.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1215
Made1014
Pct83.3%93.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2935
Made2935
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →