Fourth Down Data
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TXST

Texas State

BobcatsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference4-8#115 (-6.03)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

15· DOverall
Offense
9· FRating
12· FPer play
26· DConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
85· BPer play
80· BConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
75· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.153
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.162
Defensive EPA/play
-0.119
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.043
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.041
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.98
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.22
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.37
own return game
Return Defense
+0.45
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#115
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#112
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 40 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
4th
Opp-adjusted defense
66th
Offensive EPA/play
12th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
24th
Explosiveness
4th
Defensive havoc
65th
Points per drive
15th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Mississippi State2020OA -0.062 / +0.041similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive success rate4152Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate4113Akron2025OA -0.107 / -0.010similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4044Northern Illinois2018OA -0.095 / +0.071similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, havoc rate3965Eastern Michigan2026OA -0.077 / +0.050similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, run defense385

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Nevada14-38L+1.0L51.25O
2vs Florida International41-12W-13.5W63U
3@ Baylor7-42L+30.0L53U
4vs Houston Christian34-0W----
5@ James Madison13-40L+22.0L51.5O
6vs App State36-24W+19.0W55O
7@ Troy14-17L+16.0W47U
8vs Southern Miss14-20L+2.5L43.5U
10@ UL Monroe30-31L+1.0P52O
11@ South Alabama21-38L+16.5L47.5O
12vs Arkansas State16-13W-5.5L51U
13vs Louisiana13-41L+5.5L45O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-7-1
30.0%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LPLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off6thRed Zone Off45th3rd Down Off41thPass Def64thRush Def93thRed Zone Def81th3rd Down Def76th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15810th-0.11585th
Red Zone-0.01545th-0.20181th
Third Down+0.02841th-0.08076th
No Garbage Time-0.14813th-0.12888th
First Half-0.13916th-0.08976th
Second Half-0.17810th-0.14189th
Early Downs-0.2085th-0.21196th
Passing Downs-0.06039th-0.04464th
Standard Downs-0.2146th-0.15693th
Goal to Go-0.18826th-0.19172th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.7%Rush 46.3%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
11.6
Yards/Game
325.2
Pts/Drive
1.53
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
24.6%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points253316
Points / Game21.126.3
First Downs
Total212221
Rushing7972
Passing110133
Penalty2316
Rushing
Attempts383403
Yards1,2491,398
Yards / Carry3.33.5
Yards / Game104.1116.5
Touchdowns918
Passing
Attempts444419
Completions275272
Completion %61.9%64.9%
Yards2,6532,939
Yards / Attempt6.07.0
Touchdowns1918
Interceptions1011
Passer Rating121.75132.76
Total Offense
Plays827822
Yards3,9024,337
Yards / Play4.75.3
Yards / Game325.2361.4
Punt Returns
Returns1614
Yards14093
Average8.86.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2535
Yards434655
Average17.418.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7466
Yards2,9932,876
Average40.443.6
Interception Returns
Returns1110
Yards188149
Touchdowns23
Fumbles
Fumbles914
Lost79
Penalties
Penalties5964
Yards536633
Yards / Game44.752.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2729:33
Third Downs
Attempts185175
Conversions6962
Conversion %37.3%35.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2129
Conversions717
Conversion %33.3%58.6%
Red Zone
Trips3541
Scores (TD + FG)3233
Score %91.4%80.5%
Touchdowns2023
TD %57.1%56.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1716
Made1514
Pct88.2%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2836
Made2836
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →