Fourth Down Data
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AKR

Akron

ZipsBalanced
Mid-American Conference5-7#129 (-17.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

5· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
24· DPer play
20· DConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
85· BPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
3· F3rd down O
85· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.107
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.077
Defensive EPA/play
-0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.033
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.078
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#129
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#115
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Akron ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
46th
Offensive EPA/play
24th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
25th
Explosiveness
19th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
14th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: pass defense, havoc rate, offensive EPA4112Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4043Western Michigan2022OA -0.132 / +0.026similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3924Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3905Buffalo2023OA -0.107 / -0.008similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate384

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Wyoming0-10L----
2@ Nebraska0-68L+34.0L47.5O
3@ UAB28-31L+11.5W58.5O
4vs Duquesne51-7W-10.5W51.5O
5@ Toledo3-45L+38.5L52.5U
6vs Central Michigan28-22W-11.5L53.5U
7vs Miami (OH)7-20L+11.5L46.5U
8@ Ball State28-42L+5.5L60.5O
9@ Buffalo24-16W+10.0W49.5U
11vs Massachusetts44-10W-6.5L49O
12vs Kent State35-42L+3.0W47.5U
13@ Bowling Green19-16W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS3-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off23thRush Off19thRed Zone Off32th3rd Down Off3thPass Def60thRush Def80thRed Zone Def93th3rd Down Def86th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08920th-0.07873th
Red Zone-0.08132th-0.29593th
Third Down-0.2743th-0.13386th
No Garbage Time-0.07127th-0.11386th
First Half-0.05829th-0.11382th
Second Half-0.12010th-0.03660th
Early Downs-0.02044th-0.02855th
Passing Downs-0.12123th-0.05860th
Standard Downs-0.07219th-0.08880th
Goal to Go-0.4196th-0.42092th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
353.5
Pts/Drive
1.67
3rd Down%
31.0%
3&Out%
22.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Akron vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAkronOpponents
Scoring
Points267329
Points / Game22.327.4
First Downs
Total240235
Rushing90102
Passing127114
Penalty2319
Rushing
Attempts434435
Yards1,6141,863
Yards / Carry3.74.3
Yards / Game134.5155.3
Touchdowns918
Passing
Attempts404355
Completions209214
Completion %51.7%60.3%
Yards2,6282,750
Yards / Attempt6.57.7
Touchdowns2020
Interceptions911
Passer Rating118.26137.75
Total Offense
Plays838790
Yards4,2424,613
Yards / Play5.15.8
Yards / Game353.5384.4
Punt Returns
Returns1023
Yards47239
Average4.710.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3429
Yards721543
Average21.218.7
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts6155
Yards2,5342,257
Average41.541.0
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards68116
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1418
Lost89
Penalties
Penalties7071
Yards549669
Yards / Game45.855.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:6029:60
Third Downs
Attempts168153
Conversions5254
Conversion %31.0%35.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2519
Conversions127
Conversion %48.0%36.8%
Red Zone
Trips4438
Scores (TD + FG)3429
Score %77.3%76.3%
Touchdowns2320
TD %52.3%52.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2318
Made1615
Pct69.6%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2838
Made2738
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →