Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesBalanced
Mid-American Conference5-7#84 (-2.43)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

37· DOverall
Offense
25· DRating
28· DPer play
42· CConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
63· CRating
80· BPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
3· F3rd down O
75· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.082
Defensive EPA/play
-0.132
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.76

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#84
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 9 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
17th
Opp-adjusted defense
69th
Offensive EPA/play
28th
Defensive EPA/play
80th
Offensive success rate
38th
Explosiveness
20th
Defensive havoc
58th
Points per drive
25th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate4762Sacramento State2026OA -0.109 / +0.054similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, run defense4513Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, takeaway rate4464Indiana2017OA -0.039 / +0.073similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4195Kentucky2025OA -0.115 / +0.051similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, rushing offense417

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Charlotte24-7W-14.0W59U
2@ Rutgers16-13W+5.5W51U
4vs Ohio20-27L-1.5L54U
5@ Kentucky20-24L+14.0W50U
6@ Toledo15-20L+13.5W60U
7@ Army27-28L+4.5W51O
8vs Western Michigan17-20L+2.5L52.5U
9@ Northern Illinois27-30L+7.5W47.5O
10vs Ball State56-14W-25.0W47.5O
11@ Central Michigan30-42L-1.5L51.5O
12@ Miami (OH)27-24W+1.5W51P
13vs Bowling Green34-31W-14.0L62.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS6-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off22thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off3thPass Def80thRush Def82thRed Zone Def55th3rd Down Def76th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08325th-0.13682th
Red Zone+0.03058th-0.02655th
Third Down-0.4253th-0.19376th
No Garbage Time-0.08229th-0.13280th
First Half-0.03744th-0.04955th
Second Half-0.12819th-0.22198th
Early Downs-0.06140th-0.05863th
Passing Downs-0.04741th-0.14380th
Standard Downs-0.10322th-0.13282th
Goal to Go-0.26215th+0.01246th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.8%Rush 49.2%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
386.9
Pts/Drive
1.76
3rd Down%
34.5%
3&Out%
24.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points313280
Points / Game26.123.3
First Downs
Total243223
Rushing8496
Passing140104
Penalty1923
Rushing
Attempts422481
Yards1,5552,079
Yards / Carry3.74.3
Yards / Game129.6173.3
Touchdowns1417
Passing
Attempts435336
Completions257195
Completion %59.1%58.0%
Yards3,0882,284
Yards / Attempt7.16.8
Touchdowns2116
Interceptions158
Passer Rating127.75126.09
Total Offense
Plays857817
Yards4,6434,363
Yards / Play5.45.3
Yards / Game386.9363.6
Punt Returns
Returns2716
Yards12899
Average4.76.2
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3740
Yards618856
Average16.721.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7075
Yards2,6913,105
Average38.441.4
Interception Returns
Returns815
Yards162166
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1117
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties7488
Yards702757
Yards / Game58.563.1
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5830:02
Third Downs
Attempts174174
Conversions6064
Conversion %34.5%36.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1710
Conversions102
Conversion %58.8%20.0%
Red Zone
Trips4243
Scores (TD + FG)3537
Score %83.3%86.0%
Touchdowns2326
TD %54.8%60.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2123
Made1512
Pct71.4%52.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3634
Made3434
Pct94.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →