Fourth Down Data
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UK

Kentucky

WildcatsBalanced
Southeastern Conference5-7#75 (-2.54)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
27· DRating
16· DPer play
48· CConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
56· CPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
5· F3rd down O
56· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.115
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.051
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.100
Defensive EPA/play
-0.029
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
47.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.074
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#75
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#101
model 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#22
recruiting 53 spots higher
27 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
10th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
16th
Defensive EPA/play
56th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
4th
Defensive havoc
42th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, rushing offense4172Tennessee2020OA -0.035 / -0.016similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive EPA3823Texas Tech2020OA -0.029 / -0.010similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3564Sacramento State2026OA -0.109 / +0.054similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3555Wisconsin2024OA -0.031 / +0.002similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate349

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Toledo24-16W-10.0L48.5U
2vs Ole Miss23-30L+9.0W54.5U
3vs Eastern Michigan48-23W-26.5L49.5O
5@ South Carolina13-35L+5.5L47.5O
6@ Georgia14-35L+20.0L48.5O
8vs Texas13-16L+12.5W44U
9vs Tennessee34-56L+7.5L54.5O
10@ Auburn10-3W+11.0W45U
11vs Florida38-7W+3.5W44.5O
12vs Tennessee Tech42-10W-21.8W52.25U
13@ Vanderbilt17-45L+21.5L45O
14@ Louisville0-41L+3.0L46.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off59thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off5thPass Def72thRush Def44thRed Zone Def19th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05432th-0.02554th
Red Zone+0.04361th+0.14419th
Third Down-0.2605th+0.03157th
No Garbage Time-0.10018th-0.02855th
First Half-0.13014th-0.03457th
Second Half+0.02767th-0.01449th
Early Downs+0.01760th-0.03659th
Passing Downs-0.21510th-0.09172th
Standard Downs+0.02759th+0.00844th
Goal to Go+0.03058th+0.16030th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.0%Rush 54.0%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
10.6
Yards/Game
341.1
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
40.8%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points276317
Points / Game23.026.4
First Downs
Total237240
Rushing98101
Passing117123
Penalty2216
Rushing
Attempts432440
Yards1,6701,611
Yards / Carry3.93.7
Yards / Game139.2134.3
Touchdowns1920
Passing
Attempts368358
Completions229221
Completion %62.2%61.7%
Yards2,4232,879
Yards / Attempt6.68.0
Touchdowns1516
Interceptions1412
Passer Rating123.38137.33
Total Offense
Plays800798
Yards4,0934,490
Yards / Play5.15.6
Yards / Game341.1374.2
Punt Returns
Returns1314
Yards53173
Average4.112.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns158
Yards277130
Average18.516.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5145
Yards2,2261,877
Average43.641.7
Interception Returns
Returns1214
Yards191219
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1510
Lost82
Penalties
Penalties6078
Yards492692
Yards / Game41.057.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3829:22
Third Downs
Attempts157157
Conversions6463
Conversion %40.8%40.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2130
Conversions1114
Conversion %52.4%46.7%
Red Zone
Trips3644
Scores (TD + FG)2838
Score %77.8%86.4%
Touchdowns2429
TD %66.7%65.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1717
Made1314
Pct76.5%82.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3339
Made3339
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →