Fourth Down Data
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WIS

Wisconsin

BadgersBalanced
Big Ten Conference5-7#66 (+1.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
27· DRating
18· DPer play
32· DConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
50· CPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
75· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.091
Defensive EPA/play
-0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.3%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.089
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#66
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#79
model 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 43 spots higher
24 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
19th
Opp-adjusted defense
54th
Offensive EPA/play
18th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
31th
Explosiveness
9th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
18th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northwestern2021OA -0.108 / +0.022similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate4352Wyoming2024OA -0.049 / -0.004similar: passing offense, run defense, pass defense3903Ball State2022OA -0.128 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate3764Northern Illinois2019OA -0.044 / -0.008similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3705Texas Tech2020OA -0.029 / -0.010similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense370

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Western Michigan28-14W----
2vs South Dakota27-13W-17.5L45.5U
3vs Alabama10-42L+16.5L49.5O
5@ USC21-38L+15.5L51O
6vs Purdue52-6W-13.5W45O
7@ Rutgers42-7W+2.5W40O
8@ Northwestern23-3W-7.0W41U
9vs Penn State13-28L+6.5L48U
10@ Iowa10-42L+3.0L41O
12vs Oregon13-16L+14.0W52U
13@ Nebraska25-44L-2.5L42.5U
14vs Minnesota7-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off2thRush Off72thRed Zone Off49th3rd Down Off2thPass Def62thRush Def39thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def75th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05720th+0.00146th
Red Zone+0.01549th+0.09131th
Third Down-0.2742th-0.01275th
No Garbage Time-0.07719th-0.00249th
First Half-0.04136th-0.05764th
Second Half-0.07517th+0.06325th
Early Downs+0.01362th+0.01531th
Passing Downs-0.2762th-0.05662th
Standard Downs+0.05272th+0.02839th
Goal to Go+0.20577th-0.02750th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.4%Rush 53.6%
Havoc/Game
8.7
Havoc Rate
13.6%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
350.3
Pts/Drive
1.79
3rd Down%
36.1%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWisconsinOpponents
Scoring
Points271277
Points / Game22.623.1
First Downs
Total225219
Rushing104106
Passing98100
Penalty2313
Rushing
Attempts422428
Yards1,8441,980
Yards / Carry4.44.6
Yards / Game153.7165.0
Touchdowns1920
Passing
Attempts365323
Completions208202
Completion %57.0%62.5%
Yards2,3602,132
Yards / Attempt6.56.6
Touchdowns1412
Interceptions104
Passer Rating118.48127.77
Total Offense
Plays787751
Yards4,2044,112
Yards / Play5.35.5
Yards / Game350.3342.7
Punt Returns
Returns1619
Yards9789
Average6.14.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2613
Yards636262
Average24.520.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5561
Yards2,4912,706
Average45.344.4
Interception Returns
Returns410
Yards18134
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1612
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties6368
Yards450559
Yards / Game37.546.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2130:40
Third Downs
Attempts158158
Conversions5762
Conversion %36.1%39.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2015
Conversions128
Conversion %60.0%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips4140
Scores (TD + FG)3235
Score %78.0%87.5%
Touchdowns2425
TD %58.5%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1920
Made1213
Pct63.2%65.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3134
Made3134
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →