Fourth Down Data
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NU

Northwestern

WildcatsBalanced
Big Ten Conference3-9#118 (-7.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

12· FOverall
Offense
5· FRating
12· FPer play
8· FConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
28· DRating
51· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.108
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.140
Defensive EPA/play
-0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.0%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.118
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.103
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.82
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.64
own return game
Return Defense
+0.92
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#118
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#108
market 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
recruiting 69 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
12th
Opp-adjusted defense
62th
Offensive EPA/play
12th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
8th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2024OA -0.031 / +0.002similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate4352Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3863Georgia Tech2019OA -0.075 / -0.064similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3774Texas State2018OA -0.180 / +0.024similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3775Rutgers2017OA -0.112 / +0.007similar: TD drive rate, run defense, defensive EPA376

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Michigan State21-38L----
2vs Indiana State24-6W----
3@ Duke23-30L-3.0L49.5O
4vs Ohio35-6W-14.5W--
5@ Nebraska7-56L+12.0L51.5O
7vs Rutgers21-7W+2.0W45U
8@ Michigan7-33L+23.5L51U
9vs Minnesota14-41L+7.5L43.5O
10vs Iowa12-17L+11.5W40.5U
11@ Wisconsin7-35L+24.5L41O
12vs Purdue14-32L+11.0L47.5U
13@ Illinois14-47L+6.5L43.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8
27.3%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off14thRed Zone Off33th3rd Down Off35thPass Def50thRush Def68thRed Zone Def53th3rd Down Def77th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1389th-0.04362th
Red Zone-0.11233th-0.04953th
Third Down+0.00735th-0.08877th
No Garbage Time-0.15110th-0.02250th
First Half-0.12818th+0.06225th
Second Half-0.1479th-0.17795th
Early Downs-0.13111th-0.02557th
Passing Downs-0.18510th-0.00850th
Standard Downs-0.11114th-0.05968th
Goal to Go-0.4772th+0.2938th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.7%Rush 55.3%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
13.5%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
318.3
Pts/Drive
1.35
3rd Down%
35.8%
3&Out%
23.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthwesternOpponents
Scoring
Points199348
Points / Game16.629.0
First Downs
Total208257
Rushing110120
Passing85123
Penalty1314
Rushing
Attempts452480
Yards1,6912,559
Yards / Carry3.75.3
Yards / Game140.9213.3
Touchdowns1231
Passing
Attempts365359
Completions208241
Completion %57.0%67.1%
Yards2,1282,598
Yards / Attempt5.87.2
Touchdowns1311
Interceptions146
Passer Rating110.04134.69
Total Offense
Plays817839
Yards3,8195,157
Yards / Play4.76.1
Yards / Game318.3429.8
Punt Returns
Returns1721
Yards265189
Average15.69.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2025
Yards287426
Average14.317.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6355
Yards2,5482,381
Average40.443.3
Interception Returns
Returns614
Yards29134
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1914
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties5572
Yards498614
Yards / Game41.551.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2031:38
Third Downs
Attempts179172
Conversions6474
Conversion %35.8%43.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3212
Conversions167
Conversion %50.0%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips3452
Scores (TD + FG)2343
Score %67.6%82.7%
Touchdowns1829
TD %52.9%55.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1323
Made617
Pct46.2%73.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2339
Made2339
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →