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TXST
Texas State
BobcatsBalancedPac-12 Conference3-9#114 (-7.83)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
14· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
9· FPer play
11· FConsistency
17· DBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
77· BPer play
87· BConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
65· CRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.180
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.024
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.157
Defensive EPA/play
-0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.9%
Def Success Rate
41.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.063
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.194
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.72
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.43
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#114
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 37 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense2th
Opp-adjusted defense59th
Offensive EPA/play9th
Defensive EPA/play78th
Offensive success rate10th
Explosiveness18th
Defensive havoc18th
Points per drive8th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: offensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate4472Wyoming2025OA -0.170 / +0.043similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4463Houston2024OA -0.071 / +0.033similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense4054Washington2021OA -0.118 / +0.019similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA3875New Mexico2021OA -0.227 / +0.012similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA380
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Rutgers | 7-35 | L | +16.5 | L | 48 | U |
| 2 | vs Texas Southern | 36-20 | W | -34.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 3 | @ South Alabama | 31-41 | L | +10.0 | P | 49 | O |
| 4 | @ UTSA | 21-25 | L | +7.0 | W | 49 | U |
| 6 | vs Louisiana | 27-42 | L | +3.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Georgia Southern | 13-15 | L | +17.0 | W | 52 | U |
| 8 | @ UL Monroe | 14-20 | L | +10.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 9 | vs New Mexico State | 27-20 | W | - | - | 56 | U |
| 10 | @ Georgia State | 40-31 | W | +7.0 | W | 53 | O |
| 11 | vs App State | 7-38 | L | +18.5 | L | 47 | U |
| 12 | @ Troy | 7-12 | L | +23.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Arkansas State | 7-33 | L | +13.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-5-1
50.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.143 | 6th | -0.080 | 78th |
| Red Zone | -0.115 | 21th | -0.082 | 66th |
| Third Down | -0.250 | 5th | -0.090 | 78th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.146 | 9th | -0.075 | 73th |
| First Half | -0.232 | 3th | -0.070 | 68th |
| Second Half | -0.048 | 28th | -0.090 | 82th |
| Early Downs | -0.064 | 23th | -0.046 | 58th |
| Passing Downs | -0.216 | 5th | -0.105 | 74th |
| Standard Downs | -0.102 | 16th | -0.064 | 73th |
| Goal to Go | -0.399 | 5th | +0.341 | 11th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.5%Rush 57.5%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
15.8%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
330.3
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
31.9%
3&Out%
22.9%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 237 | 332 |
| Points / Game | 19.8 | 27.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 209 | 221 |
| Rushing | 92 | 100 |
| Passing | 94 | 106 |
| Penalty | 23 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 447 | 481 |
| Yards | 1,777 | 2,188 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 148.1 | 182.3 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 331 | 388 |
| Completions | 195 | 224 |
| Completion % | 58.9% | 57.7% |
| Yards | 2,186 | 2,419 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.6 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 122.09 | 119.77 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 778 | 869 |
| Yards | 3,963 | 4,607 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 330.3 | 383.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 20 |
| Yards | 197 | 153 |
| Average | 11.6 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 27 |
| Yards | 591 | 477 |
| Average | 21.1 | 17.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 71 | 67 |
| Yards | 2,610 | 2,600 |
| Average | 36.8 | 38.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 12 |
| Yards | 74 | 172 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 20 |
| Lost | 11 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 67 |
| Yards | 578 | 614 |
| Yards / Game | 48.2 | 51.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:53 | 32:07 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 166 | 200 |
| Conversions | 53 | 78 |
| Conversion % | 31.9% | 39.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 22 |
| Conversions | 7 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 46.7% | 59.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 33 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 25 | 38 |
| Score % | 75.8% | 84.4% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 27 |
| TD % | 60.6% | 60.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 19 |
| Made | 6 | 18 |
| Pct | 42.9% | 94.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 38 |
| Made | 27 | 36 |
| Pct | 87.1% | 94.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.