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WASH
Washington
HuskiesBalancedBig Ten Conference4-8#91 (-2.82)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
32· DOverall
Offense
14· FRating
8· FPer play
20· DConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
68· CPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
69· CRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.118
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.162
Defensive EPA/play
-0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.182
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.70
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.52
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.75
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#91
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#59
market 32 higher
Recruiting Rank
#18
recruiting 73 spots higher
33 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Washington ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense10th
Opp-adjusted defense59th
Offensive EPA/play8th
Defensive EPA/play69th
Offensive success rate22th
Explosiveness4th
Defensive havoc24th
Points per drive20th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas State2018OA -0.180 / +0.024similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA3862Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3653Buffalo2023OA -0.107 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3454Northwestern2021OA -0.108 / +0.022similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, passing offense3375Sam Houston2023OA -0.134 / +0.037similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, rushing offense332
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Montana | 7-13 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Michigan | 10-31 | L | +5.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Arkansas State | 52-3 | W | -17.0 | W | 58 | U |
| 4 | vs California | 31-24 | W | -7.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Oregon State | 24-27 | L | +2.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 7 | vs UCLA | 17-24 | L | -17.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Arizona | 21-16 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Stanford | 20-13 | W | +2.5 | W | 48 | U |
| 10 | vs Oregon | 16-26 | L | +6.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Arizona State | 30-35 | L | +5.5 | W | 44 | O |
| 12 | @ Colorado | 17-20 | L | -6.5 | L | 43 | U |
| 13 | vs Washington State | 13-40 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-8
27.3%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.156 | 8th | -0.076 | 81th |
| Red Zone | +0.050 | 64th | -0.132 | 70th |
| Third Down | +0.164 | 68th | -0.091 | 78th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.175 | 6th | -0.053 | 68th |
| First Half | -0.161 | 11th | -0.098 | 80th |
| Second Half | -0.152 | 8th | -0.057 | 65th |
| Early Downs | -0.160 | 7th | -0.015 | 48th |
| Passing Downs | -0.169 | 12th | -0.107 | 74th |
| Standard Downs | -0.150 | 8th | -0.060 | 70th |
| Goal to Go | -0.178 | 27th | -0.303 | 81th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.5%Rush 47.5%
Havoc/Game
11.1
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
323.4
Pts/Drive
1.70
3rd Down%
44.4%
3&Out%
25.0%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Washington vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Washington | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 258 | 272 |
| Points / Game | 21.5 | 22.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 216 | 220 |
| Rushing | 79 | 128 |
| Passing | 115 | 77 |
| Penalty | 22 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 370 | 489 |
| Yards | 1,181 | 2,328 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.2 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 98.4 | 194.0 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 409 | 317 |
| Completions | 243 | 194 |
| Completion % | 59.4% | 61.2% |
| Yards | 2,700 | 1,715 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.6 | 5.4 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 6 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 119.14 | 106.58 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 779 | 806 |
| Yards | 3,881 | 4,043 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 323.4 | 336.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 26 |
| Yards | 106 | 300 |
| Average | 5.6 | 11.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 16 |
| Yards | 491 | 304 |
| Average | 20.5 | 19.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 58 |
| Yards | 2,572 | 2,579 |
| Average | 47.6 | 44.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 16 |
| Yards | 171 | 168 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 12 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 51 | 82 |
| Yards | 474 | 735 |
| Yards / Game | 39.5 | 61.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:38 | 31:22 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 168 |
| Conversions | 75 | 62 |
| Conversion % | 44.4% | 36.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 17 |
| Conversions | 10 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 43.5% | 58.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 35 | 35 |
| Score % | 92.1% | 77.8% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 22 |
| TD % | 63.2% | 48.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 26 |
| Made | 11 | 20 |
| Pct | 78.6% | 76.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 30 |
| Made | 29 | 30 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 0 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.