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CLT
Charlotte
49ersRun-HeavyAmerican Conference3-9#127 (-7.94)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
7· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
9· FPer play
10· FConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
62· CPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
3· FRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
3· F3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.104
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.128
Defensive EPA/play
-0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.1%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.103
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.079
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.32
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.59
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.87
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#127
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#119
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#68
recruiting 59 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Charlotte ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense13th
Opp-adjusted defense60th
Offensive EPA/play9th
Defensive EPA/play63th
Offensive success rate7th
Explosiveness18th
Defensive havoc16th
Points per drive5th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1New Mexico2021OA -0.227 / +0.012similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4572Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA4563Texas State2018OA -0.180 / +0.024similar: offensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate4504Michigan State2020OA -0.049 / +0.004similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4235Central Michigan2018OA -0.237 / +0.049similar: defensive success rate, run defense, turnover rate421
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Carolina State | 24-3 | W | -25.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Maryland | 20-38 | L | +24.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 3 | vs Georgia State | 25-41 | L | +7.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Florida | 7-22 | L | +28.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 5 | @ SMU | 16-34 | L | +23.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Navy | 0-14 | L | +3.0 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 8 | @ East Carolina | 10-7 | W | +4.5 | L | 41 | O |
| 9 | vs Florida Atlantic | 16-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ Tulsa | 33-26 | W | +4.0 | W | 48 | O |
| 11 | vs Memphis | 38-44 | L | +9.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 12 | vs Rice | 7-28 | L | +2.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 13 | @ South Florida | 14-48 | L | +5.5 | L | 56.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS6-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.121 | 7th | -0.021 | 61th |
| Red Zone | -0.254 | 3th | -0.192 | 88th |
| Third Down | -0.121 | 3th | +0.184 | 44th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.130 | 7th | -0.006 | 55th |
| First Half | -0.156 | 4th | -0.076 | 83th |
| Second Half | -0.086 | 20th | +0.037 | 36th |
| Early Downs | -0.078 | 30th | -0.041 | 51th |
| Passing Downs | -0.173 | 7th | +0.005 | 60th |
| Standard Downs | -0.090 | 18th | -0.034 | 58th |
| Goal to Go | -0.089 | 30th | -0.035 | 55th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.4%Rush 58.6%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
312.8
Pts/Drive
1.32
3rd Down%
23.7%
3&Out%
26.1%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Charlotte vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Charlotte | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 210 | 343 |
| Points / Game | 17.5 | 28.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 203 | 229 |
| Rushing | 88 | 100 |
| Passing | 92 | 103 |
| Penalty | 23 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 464 | 429 |
| Yards | 1,740 | 1,938 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 145.0 | 161.5 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 328 | 340 |
| Completions | 186 | 214 |
| Completion % | 56.7% | 62.9% |
| Yards | 2,013 | 2,552 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 105.55 | 138.93 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 792 | 769 |
| Yards | 3,753 | 4,490 |
| Yards / Play | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 312.8 | 374.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 28 |
| Yards | 222 | 247 |
| Average | 9.7 | 8.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 17 |
| Yards | 619 | 356 |
| Average | 21.3 | 20.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 61 | 55 |
| Yards | 2,717 | 2,320 |
| Average | 44.5 | 42.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 16 |
| Yards | 107 | 225 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 12 |
| Lost | 6 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 85 | 70 |
| Yards | 712 | 604 |
| Yards / Game | 59.3 | 50.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:19 | 27:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 160 |
| Conversions | 40 | 63 |
| Conversion % | 23.7% | 39.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 16 |
| Conversions | 19 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 54.3% | 56.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 25 | 40 |
| Score % | 71.4% | 85.1% |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 24 |
| TD % | 48.6% | 51.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 25 |
| Made | 11 | 21 |
| Pct | 57.9% | 84.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 36 |
| Made | 21 | 36 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 3 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.